This is Not Cool: Is a new El nino brewing?

[greenman3610]

Last edited Thu May 8, 2014, 08:14 AM - Edit history (1)

Short answer: Almost certainly, maybe one of the most consequential cycles of the new century.

I interviewed Dr. Kevin Trenberth of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, and Dr. Josh Willis of NASA Jet Propulsion Lab for this short primer.

[liberal N proud]

1. We may be in for a ride?

To say the least

[randr]

3. Not all the effects of El Nino are negative

The effects of climate change vary widely. Some areas will have severe drought and others an increase in rainfall. Where I live, in Western Colorado, the effects of El Nino are welcome. We get what is being called a "monsoonal season" starting in mid July and running to late August. This brings much needed moisture during a normally dry period. Cools things down a bit as well.

[Gothmog]

2. Houston cannot stand another drought

Thie El Niño is bad news for Texas

[Quixote1818]

5. You are thinking of La Nina. El Nino's usually bring wet weather to Texas and across the south.

Go to the 2:50 mark of the video.

[1StrongBlackMan]

4. Posted to for later watching.

[abelenkpe]

6. So next winter will be wet?

Cause this winter we've seen no rain. At least in southern CA.

[Quixote1818]

8. El Nino's just give a greater probability for it being wet in CA. But no guarantee

And check out the forecast I posted below. NOAA currently is predicting regular winter moisture for CA despite them expecting a moderate El Nino. Kind of sucks if that holds true.

[abelenkpe]

9. Yikes!

You're right that would not really be the relief this area needs. But maybe it's better than flooding?

[Quixote1818]

15. It's hard to predict that far into the future.

It could very well change. But at least below normal precipitation is very unlikely with an El Nino.

[DhhD]

10. The March 2014 readings were very high warmth in the Eastern Pacific indicating a Super El Nino

which can change. The Northern Pacific has been cooler and cloudier this decade than usual.

Updates can be found at NOAA Climate Prediction Center (like the maps above) at:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=4

[Quixote1818]

7. For some reason NOAA is not predicting this El Nino to bring wet weather to California and the SW?

During the winter?

See here:

[DhhD]

11. NOAA discusses the El Nino Outlook dated May 8, 2010 in the pdf.

Should lead to the May 8 , 2014 pdf. from El Nino Watch link.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

[KoKo]

12. Recommend..! Great post for us 'weather concerned' in vulnerable areas.

[Kingofalldems]

13. Can't make it any worse than this winter. Can it?

I understand the cold last winter was caused by a Malaysian system that found it's way to the arctic.

[greenman3610]

14. see here