It's bad trend analysis. He's using the standard bad trend analysis tactic of starting in 1998, the year of the strongest El Niño ever recorded. That one year saw an astonishing upward fluctuation from the other years in the 1990s. It stands way above all the others in that decade. But it would look average in the 2000s. 2005 and 2010 were a little warmer, with only small El Niño effects. 2014 set yet a higher record with no El Niño.
Since he was more than a year ago taking 1998 as his starting point for bad trend analysis, shouldn't he this year start his bad trend analysis from 1999? Now that would show a really strong warming trend. You can see a big warming trend if you start from 1997, also (or any other year in the 1990s or earlier).
I predict 2015 will set a new, significantly higher record. This may seem like a risky prediction, because annual global temperature can fluctuate so much, just like 1998 was almost .2 degrees warmer than 1999. But I happen to know there has been a mild El Niño effect in 2015 already, which should push it upward from the trend just a little, and 2014, the current record setter, sat exactly on the trend line. So I think I have a better than 60% chance of getting this prediction right.
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