Russia and China don't want Libya scenario in Syria

[The Northerner]

As a civil war grips Syria, it doesn't look like there is an end in sight. This after Syrian officials were killed in an explosion of unclear nature - including the defense minister, his deputy, security advisor and Bashar al-Assad's brother-in-law. So what's going on in Syria? Is a diplomatic solution possible at this point? Cole Bockenfeld of the Project on Middle East Democracy joins RT's Liz Wahl to explain.

[leveymg]

1. The two situations aren't really comparable, anyway.

Gadhaffi had no real base of power. He was a charismatic who stayed in power because he had been kept in power by the US after the Libyan King was overthrown during a trip to the UK. A group of Brits wanted to go in with mercenaries and overthrow the junta, but the CIA got wind of it, and quashed the attempted coup. That's all public knowledge. I recall it's in the Wiki.

Gadhaffi stayed in power because he was smart enough to put aside 30% of Libyan oil production for western companies. which he sold at below market with some extremely large kickback schemes involving above-market cost imports, in recent years mostly with Italian and New Europe business partners. His dealings made a lot of people in the West very rich, so they had an interest in keeping the gravy train on track. That much is also widely acknowledged.

For a while he was the patron of many of the world's worst terrorists, some of whom are accused of attacking US targets, but these same terrorists also carried out operations against parties who were on the CIA's shit list, so somehow Gadhaffi survived. The facts are there, but you can draw your own conclusions.

Last year was just a convenient time to get rid of him.

On the other hand, the Assad regime in Syria is basically a clan and religious based affair that is ruled by prominent Alawite families. The Alawite are a Shi'ia sect and are a small minority - 14%, with about 70% of Syria is Sunni Muslim. During the last installment of the Sunni uprising in Syria, during which the Saudis also intervened, some 60,000 or more were killed. The Alawite will continue fighting to hold power - regardless of Assad's personal fate -- like their lives depend upon it.

[David__77]

2. That's because their lives do depend upon it.

The Arabic language opposition forums are full of incendiary talk of "Alawite dogs," or, more commonly, they use the pejorative "Nusayri." The Alawites and Christians of Syria have been in the front of the nationalist and progressive political movements of Syria. That is not to say there are not progressive Sunni Syrians as well, but they have been unfortunately put in the shadow by monstrous Salafist clerics hell-bent on destroying every trace of humanism and cultural modernity.