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Mon Oct 29, 2018, 04:44 AM

Morgan Creek CEO: We are closer to a recession than people think

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Reply Morgan Creek CEO: We are closer to a recession than people think (Original post)
Quixote1818 Oct 2018 OP
Sherman A1 Oct 2018 #1
democratisphere Oct 2018 #2
bucolic_frolic Oct 2018 #3
erpowers Oct 2018 #7
bucolic_frolic Oct 2018 #8
erpowers Oct 2018 #9
GETPLANING Oct 2018 #4
unblock Oct 2018 #5
dalton99a Oct 2018 #6

Response to Quixote1818 (Original post)

Mon Oct 29, 2018, 05:22 AM

1. That is my opinion as well

Hopefully it will be a short one.

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Response to Quixote1818 (Original post)

Mon Oct 29, 2018, 05:27 AM

2. Get rid of drumpf, his cabinet, his advisors and their policies and actions

then things might improve gradually.

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Response to Quixote1818 (Original post)

Mon Oct 29, 2018, 07:25 AM

3. Take a look at autos and building suppliers

some are signaling recession: Ford, GM, Honda, Masco are a few I looked at. Gonna be a long ride down. They cannot and won't tell you what's happening because it would create financial panic, and deprive the wealthiest financial gurus of their best returns in decades: we have overcapacity in just about everything because of the low interest rates. And this video is wrong this is just a 2008-2009 thing. Recall that Greenspan in response to 9-11 aftershock and sluggish economy cut interest rates in 2002 to about 1.5 percent. So by 2009 we needed .25% interest rates to keep things going. Next time they will seize your money with negative interest rates (you pay the bank fees to hold your money at 0%), which is probably politically unfeasible, so we'll have a broad Great Recession instead of a jobs/homebuilder recession as in 2008-2009. Buckle up.

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Response to bucolic_frolic (Reply #3)

Mon Oct 29, 2018, 03:11 PM

7. Please Explain Further

How would a broad Great Recession be different than the jobs/homebuilder recession of 2008-2009? I understand the definition of the words you used. I just do not see how the 2008 recession was not a general recession. I just assumed everyone got hurt during that recession. How would a broad Great Recession look?

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Response to erpowers (Reply #7)

Mon Oct 29, 2018, 03:25 PM

8. It would be more cyclical and effect most industries equally rather

than key and core industries initially and greatly. It would probably include elements of stagflation and general economic downturn. More like the 73-75 recession in other words. That was due to high energy costs and everyone felt the pain though I don't recall any or many corporate bankruptcies, a few retailers closed. Construction was hit pretty good but autos kept producing. But of course back then goods were scarce, or at least not in oversupply as they are today. Today, for a full employment economy, there are no real shortages or stockouts of much of anything. So many producers, so many retailers, so many auto companies, etc. Entities in debt will face difficulties paying their obligations. I doubt people or companies were as leveraged in 73-75 as they were in 2008 or today.

It is difficult to find periods of time when GDP actually contracted. Seems like everytime we get a whisper of recession the Fed lowers interest rates. Mostly we have near recessions, and then events like 73-75 or 2008-2009.

Or i could be all wet. It's just how I see it.

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Response to bucolic_frolic (Reply #8)

Mon Oct 29, 2018, 05:20 PM

9. Thank You

Thank you for the explanation. Your information was very helpful.

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Response to Quixote1818 (Original post)

Mon Oct 29, 2018, 09:01 AM

4. Indexes may look good, but structurally,

the markets have been declining since February.

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Response to Quixote1818 (Original post)

Mon Oct 29, 2018, 09:56 AM

5. markets can't really predict more than about 6 months ahead. so when they drop significantly,

they're either predicting a downturn about 6 months out or they're just making a normal correction within a bull market that's simply gotten ahead of itself.

but corrections within a bull market tend to be fast and sharp, things a volatile for a short period of time, then they fairly quickly stabilize and resume their upward trend.

this market is not really doing that, though it's still possible for it to stabilize quickly and return to a bull trend.

it seems more likely, though, that it continues to bounce around sideways or further down. either case highly suggests the market is predicting a contraction in about 6 months.

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Response to Quixote1818 (Original post)

Mon Oct 29, 2018, 09:57 AM

6. It will probably be official by next summer

unless Trump changes the stats

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