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Mon Oct 29, 2018, 07:11 PM

Chart master says it's about to get worse before it gets better

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Reply Chart master says it's about to get worse before it gets better (Original post)
Quixote1818 Oct 2018 OP
Squinch Oct 2018 #1
bucolic_frolic Oct 2018 #2
brush Oct 2018 #3
GETPLANING Oct 2018 #4

Response to Quixote1818 (Original post)

Mon Oct 29, 2018, 07:24 PM

1. I always find financial "experts" to be astonishing. So this guy has looked back

to find trends and historic similarities to this market to try and figure out what will happen next.

Well, OF COURSE that's what you do! He explains it nicely, and I enjoyed the video (thank you Quixote1818), but it isn't like the data he is showing is mind boggling, hard to find, or the product of genius.

The other "experts" all sit around the table looking agog, as if this is the most erudite information they have ever heard.

What the hell do THEY look at? Tea leaves? Their toenails?

Honestly, I think 99% of them are complete idiots.

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Response to Quixote1818 (Original post)

Mon Oct 29, 2018, 07:45 PM

2. Late in an economic cycle, earnings are concentrated in FANG and big companies

The shakeout has been rolling through small biotechs, oils, cyclicals for many months.

I think a test of Dow 20,000 is a cinch; if election fallout is violent, politically uncertain and contested, if there are more incidents of crazies, it could bring on recession as people hunker down. A test of Dow 10,000, with an overshoot to 9,000 is my take on it, but it's just a hunch. I am hedged to some extent, and own very little anyway. This reminds me of 1973 era of the Nifty Fifty. So get thrifty.

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Response to bucolic_frolic (Reply #2)

Mon Oct 29, 2018, 09:09 PM

3. Show me a repug admin and I'll show you a recession/sell off.

It's history and it's predictable.

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Response to Quixote1818 (Original post)

Mon Oct 29, 2018, 10:27 PM

4. The market has been in decline since February.

The Bear is stealthy. By the time most people see it, it is already too late to do anything about it. If today's market doesn't wake you up, nothing will.
But the Bull is also stealthy. Don't take your eye off the ball.

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