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Tue Jul 14, 2020, 10:45 AM

Governor Cuomo Pandemic Update July 13 2020

"We're not going to use our children as guinea pigs...I tell the experts, determine that by science.

So the formula is this: Schools will reopen IF that region is in Phase 4
AND the daily infection rate remains under 5% or lower over a 14-day average...
that means the virus is under control.
That means it's safe to reopen, and then the schools can proceed to reopening in that region.

That determination will be made the first week in August...
Between the first week in August and school opening day, if the virus spikes,
the safety valve is a floor -- schools will close if the regional infection rate is over 9% in a 7-day average... that means the virus is moving rapidly... purely on the numbers, on the science...

Continue to monitor the 14-day rolling average across regions...

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Reply Governor Cuomo Pandemic Update July 13 2020 (Original post)
ancianita Jul 2020 OP
SergeStorms Jul 2020 #1
ancianita Jul 2020 #2
SergeStorms Jul 2020 #3
ancianita Jul 2020 #4
SergeStorms Jul 2020 #5
ancianita Jul 2020 #7
Rhiannon12866 Jul 2020 #6
ancianita Jul 2020 #8
Rhiannon12866 Jul 2020 #9
ancianita Jul 2020 #10

Response to ancianita (Original post)

Tue Jul 14, 2020, 01:28 PM

1. I think the chances...

of completing the entire school year without a shut-down is about 10%, and that's being generous. The numbers in New York will spike again due to total assholes not wearing masks or complying with the Governor's other mandates. I see them every day in stores, public buildings etc. They refuse to comply because... "freedumb". I commend the Governor and other New York State officials who have reacted in the most responsible ways necessary to get the spread of the virus under control. It's the people who find it impossible to act responsibly that will jeopardize the rest of the public.

I'm terrified to have my grandchildren return to school. I would hate to self-quarantine from my daughter and her family again, but if I have to, I have to. Normally I'd gladly give my life in order for them to live, but not for something as nonsensical as a totally preventable virus spread by morons who think it's a hoax.

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Response to SergeStorms (Reply #1)

Tue Jul 14, 2020, 02:29 PM

2. I agree that the public find it impossible to be responsible. As if they feel there is no choice.

Positive direction from leaders is also impossible. With this prez they pass along the message that leaves a climate of no-win inevitibility of "sacrifice" of our children.

"Freedumb" is part of it, but I believe the climate of chaotic leadership doesn't help. This becomes "every man for himself" governance which is the opposite of what good governance in a deadly pandemic is for a 50-state nation this big.

Tell your family what you know. They should not succumb to bad leadership that doesn't give two hoots about their "life, liberty, etc." Tell them if their state isn't Phase 4, or their region, all bets are off. Pass this state's standards along to them.

We all must find a way to stay firm in the face of chaotic leadership.

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Response to ancianita (Reply #2)

Tue Jul 14, 2020, 08:49 PM

3. We're in phase 4 here...

but it still scares the crap out of me. I see people all around acting as if there never were a virus, and that's not good. It's only the middle of July, and although school doesn't start here until after Labor Day, that still gives the morons quite a bit of time to spread the virus before then. I don't see this ending well until there's a reliable vaccine with everyone being inoculated. Then we can wait for the next super-bug to come along and start the whole cycle all over again. If you couldn't tell, I have little faith in the human race.

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Response to SergeStorms (Reply #3)

Tue Jul 14, 2020, 09:02 PM

4. In ANY Phase, it only takes one asymptomatic carrier, right?

You're absolutely right to be scared. Fear is one of our four genetically inherited emotions that have helped the human race survive.

There are grasshoppers all around. They get swept away because they forget their place in nature. Hell, my daughter ... I'm too ashamed to even say. Those who laughingly make it past this vaccine will still get swept aside in the next pandemic virus, and the habits we build now will keep us alive to see the end of this unnecessary suffering.

I'm not saying what you should do, but whatever you do, you are doing it because you love your children and grandchildren and want them to be the smart fearful ones who survive. You don't want to reach the end of your life and regret that you held anything back.

Now that I think about that, neither do I. Guess I'd better have that talk with my daughter.

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Response to ancianita (Reply #4)

Tue Jul 14, 2020, 10:34 PM

5. Sounds like a plan.

Now, don't you wish everyone were as logical and cooperative as you and I?

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Response to SergeStorms (Reply #5)

Tue Jul 14, 2020, 11:01 PM

7. Haha

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Response to SergeStorms (Reply #1)

Tue Jul 14, 2020, 10:56 PM

6. I'm also in New York and we're supposedly doing well - now, but that could change at any time

Look at California. It doesn't take much and though masks are required - there's a notice on every store entrance - it only takes a few and I still see those without masks pretty much everywhere I go. And who's supposed to enforce the policy, the 20-year-old at the cash register??

I'm also scared to death because I'm close to a tourist area, just south of Lake George. And I'm sure that the tourists will be shopping down here, they are bound to need more than tee shirts and pizza. I don't go out often and only stop where I absolutely need to, but I notice cars on the road and despite the governor's mandate for quarantine of those from a dozen states, I see out-of-state license plates all the time. When I went out last week, and I didn't go all that far, I saw 4 different cars from Florida!

And as far as school openings, I just can't see it happening safely no matter how they do it. I've spent time working with kids in a classroom and, though my class was comprised of disabled young kids, and as much as I loved them, it was often like herding cats. And when I've gone out recently, those I've seen without masks were often young guys, likely still school age. And they were also in groups which will happen when they return to school. I'd hate to see them opening prematurely then having a spike and having to shut down all over again.

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Response to Rhiannon12866 (Reply #6)

Wed Jul 15, 2020, 12:05 AM

8. It could.

That recovery could change at any time is a dark cloud over the country.

But New Yorkers have been smart enough to vote in a smart governor who, even with his strict formulas and numbers, at least admits he can't control free will. Which makes his efforts the best in the country. No other governor has gone to the lengths to study the COVID map like him. Still, no matter how good the governor and his management team, people have to stop thinking they're special, they're the exception.

He's got a plan for visitors that's better than any I've seen for any state. Florida's definitely on the list. People from other states bring their irresponsibility and forgetfulness with them. So, if they break quarantine, for instance, what's Cuomo going to do, have police tell them to pack up and leave? He hasn't said. Without an ankle bracelet, visitors' honoring a quarantine isn't guaranteed. It's also about that pesky Commerce Clause.

If you're out of the city where you can keep your distance, there's objective safety in that. Watching people makes you aware, vigilant.

Until we adapt to the COVID reality, we're going to keep forgetting that we're not the apex predator species. But even a great team of NY experts can't be minders.

I'd think if the right wing say that Dem governors are exerting tyrannical control, they wouldn't want to visit Democratic states. Makes me wonder why they do.

I'm in Florida, watching be an epicenter; I could return to my Chicago home. But the better care up there is offset by the threat of population density. So I'm staying put, watching the same kinds of behavior you're seeing.

People confuse risk and threat. They confuse being 'in authority' and being 'an authority.'

And for kids there are just not enough adult supervision to go around. The whole school question, no matter how good Phase 4 looks, could come down to regional referendum of only parents with <18 children. Their decision should be the final word, and they've got all of the time COVID is here to be absolutely right not to open schools. We might as well get used to shutdowns, and reopenings without schools, as far as I'm concerned.

It's hard to watch cautionary tales, but it's better to watch them than to be them.

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Response to ancianita (Reply #8)

Wed Jul 15, 2020, 01:27 AM

9. It's just the luck of the draw that I was born in New York, but I've never been more grateful

Governor Cuomo has been doing what a national leader should have been, tackling this pandemic head on, listening to the experts and putting sensible precautions in place. As a result, the dire situation that started downstate has turned around, yet inexplicably he's gotten the most criticism from what should have been the national leadership!

And we're also fortunate in these parts, we're about as far from The City as we can get. We're fairly rural, near the mountains and lakes, more like Vermont which is fairly close. But as a result, we also get the seasonal tourists, and this is the season. Until recently, just about everything was closed except for groceries, gas stations and pharmacies. And a lot of places aren't opening for the season and many usual events are canceled. But the tourists have arrived nonetheless, I've seen license plates from all over the country recently when I've been out, including states included in the governor's quarantine. I really miss the lack of traffic.

But you're right, I don't know how the quarantine can be enforced short of stopping every car from out of state on the road. I've heard that hotels and motels are supposed to be involved, but I have no idea how that's working. And you're also right is that the lack of population density is a definite advantage. I normally go to a meeting once a month right in Lake George Village where in July and August the streets (only one main street, really ) are packed with crowds. But that's canceled, too, we haven't met in person since March.

And I also agree parents - and teachers - should have the final say on the school opening question. But from what I heard on the news shows tonight, they are the ones who aren't being consulted. Little kids are bound to be more cooperative, yet they're the ones who need more one-on-one attention. And those I've seen without masks have been mostly teenagers - in groups - mostly boys, but some girls, too. And I just can't see how one teacher could successfully manage 20-30 kids of any age at once, let alone have the room to enforce mandated distancing in any classroom.

So the best I can do is just to manage myself, I still only go out and visit places when I have to, groceries, pet supplies, pharmacy and occasionally gas. Initially, we kept thinking that things would return to "normal" when this was "over," but is that ever going to happen? I'm finally realizing, given the resurgence in so many areas of the country, that the precautions that we're learning to live with are becoming a way of life.

Stay safe out there!

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Response to Rhiannon12866 (Reply #9)

Wed Jul 15, 2020, 08:01 AM

10. You are indeed lucky. I love New York.

In college I worked at Lake Minnewaska, just outside New Paltz. Later traveled many times through your area on my way from Chi to Maine, and stayed on Lake George a couple of times. I've got a cousin who lives in the Adirondacks, and family in Bangor, Presque Isle and Penobscot Bay in Maine. The forest air, green mountains and low humidity are what draw tourists there, imo.

Thank you, you stay safe, as well. If we're patient, we might live to see the other side of this.

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