06 Mar: Cornered: Russians Forced into High Losses Urban Fighting - Reporting from Ukraine

[TexasTowelie]

Day 376: March 06

Today the biggest news is coming from the east. Here, Russian forces have deployed their most elite Wagner units to cut off Ukrainians from two sides. However, Ukrainians took extraordinary measures that made flank attacks too costly, and given that Ukrainians started leaving their positions inside the city, Russians tried to quickly fill the void and capitalize on the momentum, only to find themselves entangled in the high losses urban fights.

Last time I told you that Ukrainians managed to stop Russian advances after reinforcing their flanks significantly. I also told you that Ukrainians have finally started withdrawing from the town and that they have already left the eastern bank of the river and the southern part of the town.

Right now, the most intense fights are taking place on the outskirts of the city. Russian sources reported that Ukrainians had substituted their tired forces with fresh ones from Chasiv Yar and Sloviansk for conducting limited counteroffensive operations, and so far, it looks like they are successful. If previously, Russians reported huge difficulties associated with further advancement, then today, some Russian sources started to report about the unsustainability of the same intensity of attacks and that Russians left some positions.

It is highly unlikely that Ukrainians are trying to recapture vast swaths of land, given the current weather conditions. It looks like Ukrainians just improved their fire control over the fields and made certain Russian positions simply untenable. With increased fire, Russian forces pulled back to more reliable positions. And this is where Russians started having the biggest problems – by stepping back, the concentration of their forces increased, which means that Russians became significantly more vulnerable to artillery and airstrikes. In fact, many Russian sources confirmed today that Ukrainians concentrated their artillery fire on the flanks and also continuously engaged at least 6 assault helicopters to bomb Russian strong points.

If we take into account the fact that Wagner forces engaged their most elite formations to complete what they thought would be the final step to encircling Bakhmut, then we can see that Wagner forces are likely incurring high losses of the most capable troops. That is why the Head of the Wagner Group, Progozhin, said today that Ukrainians are setting the conditions to block Wagner forces. He said that in order to avoid it, Wagners need more ammunition and, most of all, secure flanks. Prigozhin’s panic is justifiable because starting from the second half of March, the weather is expected to improve very rapidly, and given that the Wagners have overstretched their forces by widening the front line, there is plenty of weak spots in their flanks. That is why he said that if the Russian Defense Ministry fails to ensure that they together tackle this problem, then Wagner forces are “screwed”.

But it looks like defeating Russian flank attacks is only one part of the Ukrainian plan. As you remember, the second part of the plan is to impose more beneficial for Ukrainians rules of the game, which is urban fighting. Widening the corridor for withdrawal, limited withdrawals themselves, and continuous urban fighting are not mutually exclusive goals. Ukrainians are fighting inside the town while gradually stepping back; as they step back, they shorten the front line and a shorter front line requires fewer troops to protect it, so they conduct yet another limited withdrawal through the protected corridor.

Ukrainian Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council recently said that by leveraging their fortified positions inside Bakhmut, for every loss, Ukrainians are inflicting 7 losses to Russians. That is why the Battle for Bakhmut is less about defending the city and more about bleeding Russians out.

Overall, Ukrainians are succeeding in imposing their rules of the game: they have reinforced the flanks and leveraged the bad weather to prevent the encirclement of the city; they have incentivized Russians to commit more resources to the urban fights by slowly withdrawing and creating the void that Russians try to fill, which leads to more urban fights, a higher concentration of Russian forces that suffer from artillery and airstrikes and faster depletion of the most capable Russian assault units.

[niyad]

1. Slava Ukraini! Thank you for the update.