08 Mar: Ukrainians spot a rare opportunity to penetrate Russian flanks - Reporting from Ukraine

[TexasTowelie]

Day 378: March 08

Last time Ukrainians put a lot of effort into preserving the corridor for withdrawal by extensive airstrikes with assault helicopters. The freshest reports suggest that these efforts are not enough because Russians have improved their fire control over the retreat routes. When Russians had just advanced into the area, they were still using only artillery to hit the roads in the fields. Later Russians started to use drones to correct their fire to make sure that they accurately targeted these small roads, and Russians also brought mortars closer contact line. That is why 5-6 days ago, the number of vehicles hit during the process of withdrawal noticeably increased. Russian sources reported that Ukrainians responded by shifting to only using the roads at night in order to constrain the spotting of the convoys. Ukrainians are also using very small groups of 5 to 8 vehicles that they launch at random times. The such tactic not only decreases the probability of being spotted but also requires the Russians to expend significantly more shells to be effective. Unfortunately, Russians manage to catch some vehicles every day, even in the most unconventional places, such as forest areas.

But over the last two days, based on Russian reports, Ukrainian losses of cars and armor have suddenly decreased by more than 50%. Military analysts are offering three plausible explanations. Firstly, as discussed in the previous report, Ukrainians have reinforced their flanks and assumed an active defense position, meaning that they started conducting limited counterattacks whenever possible instead of just staying in their position, waiting to defend against the next attack. These limited counterattacks have reportedly pushed Russians a little bit back, which reduced their possibilities of using drones, but even more importantly, mortars.

Secondly, after Ukrainians started slowly withdrawing from the eastern bank of the river and southern parts of the city, Russians may have concentrated their efforts on developing their success here. Such actions required constant artillery support, which was granted at the expense of fire control over the roads leading out of Bakhmut. In fact, today, geolocated footage confirmed that Russians gained one more street north of their positions and one street west of their positions.

Lastly, after seeing a huge spike in vehicle losses, Ukrainians may have put some limitations on the use of the roads for some time while they are preparing to take greater measures for widening the corridor and reducing Russian fire control. In fact, after the Head of the Wagner Group, Prigozhin, drew the attention of Russian military analysts to the offensive groups that Ukrainians were forming in the Donetsk region, many started to evaluate a Ukrainian counterattack in this region as a possibility.

The main reason why Ukrainians suddenly obtained an opportunity for a counteroffensive here is simple – Wagner forces have stretched the front line to the verge of their ability to hold it, which is the same thing that happened prior to the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region. The fact of the matter is over the last 2 months, the area of responsibility of Wagner forces increased from 30 km to more than 60 km, while their forces have shrunk because the Russian Ministry of Defense forbade them to recruit prisoners. That is why Wagners had to, firstly, put on hold their offensive towards Siversk and later even put on hold their offensive to the south of Bakhmut to be able to achieve anything to the north of Bakhmut.

It is true that they have been successfully advancing in this region so far, but the fundamental reason for that lies in the topography of the region. After establishing control of the hills around Soledar, Russians were facing Ukrainian positions in the lowlands. But after taking control over the lowlands, Wagners once again have to fight uphill. And with a lower concentration of troops due to the stretched front line, the further they go, the harder it gets. And right now, we are at the point where Wagner forces are concentrated in the lowlands around Bakhmut, which opens a possibility for Ukrainians to attack and recapture the hills of Yakovlivka and Kurdiumivka, and engulf Wagner forces that are trying to engulf Bakhmut.

[PortTack]

1. Slava Ukraine!