15 Mar: Danger! Russian Breach Ukranian Defense Near Avdiivka - Reporting from Ukraine

[TexasTowelie]

Day 385: March 15

Last time I told you that after Ukrainians pushed Russians from Vesele back to the highway, Russians decided to switch their focus to Novobakhmutivka in order to improve their tactical position relative to Ukrainian positions in Krasnohorivka. I also told you that their attempt to conduct a mechanized assault and engulf Novobakhmutivka failed because Ukrainians leveraged the heights around Oleksandropil to secure their flanks.

The freshest reports indicate that Russians decided to switch to frontal assaults on Krasnohorivka once again. After the previous engagements in this region, Russian forces maintained a foothold on the western side of the highway. In a resumed offensive, fierce fights broke out near the lakes around Vesele. Their plan was the same: attack Vesele in front while simultaneously moving towards the hills to hit Vesele from the back. This time Russian forces succeeded and took control over Vesele.

By establishing control over this hill, Russians immediately made the eastern part of Krasnohorivka untenable. The difference in elevation here is almost 40 meters, so Ukrainians completely mined the area and moved to the central part of the village, which is located on another hill. Ukrainians have also responded to the deteriorating situation by reinforcing the Kransnohorivka group with several detachments.

At first glance, it is surprising how Russian units managed to breach Ukrainian defense here after a series of defeats and sustained high losses, especially in armor. However, as it turned out, Russians have recently deployed a lot of fresh troops to the Avdiivka direction, including newly mobilized soldiers. Fresh reinforcements allowed Russian assault units to utilize more manpower and not be as constrained by losses as previously.

Russian sources reported that their advancement inside Krasnohorivka was constrained due to mines. It looks like Ukrainians understood that once Russians secured the hills, Ukrainians would no longer have an absolute tactical advantage and prepared the outskirts of the village in advance for the Russian entrance.

Ukrainian sources reported that Russians started making attempts at expanding control around Krasnohorivka, especially to the north of it. They also reported that Russians engaged their aviation much more frequently and also started conducting mechanized assaults. Geolocated footage provided by the Ukrainian 110th mechanized brigade shows heavy engagements of tanks, and armored vehicles. It also shows how Russian infantry tried to maintain their positions in the tree lines despite constant drone and artillery fire.

Unfortunately, Ukrainian positions north of Avdiivka are much less fortified than those to the south of Avdiivka, which is why Russians managed to expand their bridgehead and slowly push Ukrainians out of Krasnohorivka. The loss of Krasnohorivka is a significant development because it opens Russians access to one of Aviidka’s supply lines.

A frontal assault on Avdiivka from Krasnohorivka is not an option, so the next logical step for Russians will be an attempt to take Novokalynove and other settlements to the north of Avdiivka. That is why Ukrainians are reportedly creating firing positions for big-caliber machine guns around Krasnohorivka. Ukrainians have also sent additional supplies and reinforcements, expecting Russian forces to try to capitalize on their recent gains and keep up the momentum of advancement.

Overall, Russian forces are likely trying to exploit the excessive Ukrainian focus on Bakhmut and their preparation for a counteroffensive around Bakhmut. The best way to undermine their counteroffensive efforts would be to create problems somewhere else and force them to use the accumulated manpower to solve these problems at the expense of their main goal. Recent developments to the north of Avdiivka do not look good, although talks about the encirclement are still premature. The main supply hub of Avdiivka remains Orlivka, which is why Russians are unlikely to force Ukrainians to leave Avdiivka without achieving significant progress in the most fortified direction of this region.