The Trump effect: Could Arizona go blue for the first time in 20 years?

[DesertRat]

PHOENIX — If there is one place where the dramas and subplots of Campaign 2016 collide, it is across the sprawling and scorching desert state of Arizona.

Here lives Donald Trump’s restive base of white voters unsettled by the country’s social transformation and fired up to dismantle Washington’s power structure. Here also lies the Democrats’ sleeping giant — an estimated 350,000 Latinos who are not registered to vote but who could mobilize against the presumptive Republican presidential nominee over his incendiary rhetoric.

Then there are the politicians. One senator, Jeff Flake (R), is a vocal Trump critic sounding the alarm about an electoral wipeout. The other, John McCain (R), ­alternates awkwardly between his maverick persona and a Trump apologist as he navigates an unexpectedly difficult reelection race. Also on the ballot is Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio, a Trump backer whose long crusade against undocumented immigrants makes him a lightning rod.

This leaves the Democrats — who have withered away as the state took a hard-right turn in the Obama era — sensing their best chance in two decades to turn Arizona and its 11 electoral votes blue. They think that Trump, who campaigned in Phoenix on Saturday, is energizing a new generation of Latino voters who haven’t participated in elections before.[/div
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/the-trump-effect-could-arizona-go-blue-for-the-first-time-in-20-years/2016/06/18/a1ffe53e-34aa-11e6-8758-d58e76e11b12_story.html

[Warpy]

1. Depends on who they're ordered to vote for by the church

Other than that, I do expect Johnson/Libertarian to make a decent showing there. Shoot, people might vote for him here in blue NM, there is just no way to predict it.

Trump is pretty much despised out west, a shining example of what's wrong with the eastern half of the country, especially New York City, which most people out here have never visited. He's going to be a tough sell, especially in areas with huge Hispanic populations. If we're not Hispanic, we know them as friends, neighbors and coworkers and we also know Trump is full of shit.

[Astraea]

2. I hope so

I think there are a lot of independent voters in Arizona, so the scale might just be tipped in our favor this time. Trump is repulsive.