Nate Cohn: Districts like Orange County CA will decide if Dems control House.

[SunSeeker]

There has been no shortage of reports that President Trump is still very popular in the bars and diners of the old industrial towns that decided the 2016 presidential election.

But if you want to meet the voters who will decide the biggest political story of the 2018 congressional elections, you might have to fly right over the blue-collar workers of Youngstown, Ohio, and go talk to the real housewives of Orange County, Calif.

It’s hard to think of a place that was less relevant to Mr. Trump’s fortunes in 2016. Mrs. Clinton’s success in Orange County, and in well-educated and Hispanic areas elsewhere in the Sun Belt, helped her win the popular vote — though there was no payoff in the Electoral College. But it’s districts like these that will decide whether the Democrats can make a serious run at control of the House.
...
Darrell Issa, who represents the California coast from southern Orange County almost to La Jolla, is probably the nation’s most vulnerable incumbent. That’s based on factors that tend to predict which districts are likeliest to be competitive — like the result of his last election (he won by just 1 point) and how the district voted in recent presidential contests.

By the same measures, the 24th-most vulnerable Republican is Dana Rohrabacher, whose district is immediately north of Mr. Issa’s — stretching up the Orange County coast from Laguna Beach to Sunset Beach. In between, Ed Royce and Mimi Walters represent the 13th- and 20th-most vulnerable districts.

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/02/22/upshot/democrats-best-bet-for-house-control-is-following-the-sun.html

[JI7]

1. it's all about demograhpic changes

for those who feel left out of the primary and other elections because california is solid blue and late primary this is an area they could get involved in and try to make a difference.

[Control-Z]

2. Are you from OC? n/t

[JI7]

3. no, los angeles

[Vogon_Glory]

4. I'm still surprised that Darrell Issa didn't go the way of Bob Dornan

Another right-wing Republican who lost touch with the changes in his district.