Florida is a naturally flat and marshy subtropical/tropical place. The natural flow of water has been channeled through a complex series of pumps, canals, shallow filter marshes and reservoirs in the service of development and agriculture. The centerpiece of this man-made drainage system is Lake Okeechobee.
The Kissimmee River channels runoff from the Orlando area into the lake. The Army Corps of Engineers maintains the dike that surrounds the lake and regulates discharges to maintain optimum levels for flood control, agricultural water supply, and habitat management. John Campbell, a spokesman for the Corps, had this to say about a Harvey-like inundation in Florida:
"Just" 20 inches of rain falling on the the 3,700-square-mile Kissimmee River basin north of Lake O would raise the lake level 7 to 8 feet...
Lake O's elevation Tuesday was 13 feet, 6 inches; another 7 to 8 feet would take it to between 20 feet, 6 inches and 21 feet, 6 inches. The Corps tries to keep the lake below 15 feet, 6 inches and "has a lot of concern above 17 feet," Campbell said. "I think the dike could hold up to 21 feet, but it might not."
Predicting the results of 40 inches of rain isn't as simple as doubling the results of 20 inches. "We've never had the lake at 21 feet," Campbell said, "so there are no scenarios for what would happen. Anything we came up with would be pure speculation. But the key message is: The higher the lake, the greater the risk of dike failure."
In the unlikely event the dike didn't fail, the excess runoff from central Florida would still run over the top of the dike and devastate the entire Everglades Agricultural Area and much of Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade Counties.
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