Here are my post-Irma thoughts

[teach1st]

* You have to go with your gut reaction.
* Sometimes your gut reaction isn't the best reaction.
* Never second-guess your gut reaction, even when it isn't the best reaction.
* There are many, many cascading consequences to each gut reaction.
* There are many, many cascading consequences to each reaction not followed.
* Never underestimate the healing power of an abundance of wine.

I saw people move from the forecast track to outside the cone of error, only to be hit hardest. I saw people move north and get stranded by gas shortages and traffic and ugly weather that followed them like a lonely puppy. I saw people who are lucky that they evacuated. I saw people stay where they were, second-guessing the hell out of their decision, and ending up OK. I saw people who stayed where they were ending up regretting it. I saw people evacuate three times, each time evacuating into a more intense situation than the one before.

The next time we're threatened by a massive, evil, and largely unforecastable hurricane, I won't know what to do except to be as prepared as possible. Well, actually, I will know what to do. Stick with family and friends. Remember that your stuff is just that...stuff. And, above all, remember that life is just a thrilling crap shoot. You rolls the dice, you takes your chances. I wouldn't have it any other way.

And always, always, have a week's supply of Triscuits, wine, and clean underwear.

[FM123]

1. You are right, stuff is just stuff and family is what matters.

We stayed, and we were lucky. The storm shifted and went away from us and we only got cat 1 winds. Others stayed where they were and were not so lucky. Some left and were okay and others left and were either stranded or got hit where they fled to. Florida is such a patchwork state that even across the street, conditions can differ. And change in a heartbeat.

[NightWatcher]

2. I learn a little more from each storm.

Floyd proved what I've known. If you lose power (and I will lose power), plan on at least 5 but have supplies for 14 days.

Mathew showed me that I can handle a surge of 10-15' without so much as a drop on my street or near my house. It also told me what tree in my yard to remove, check.

Irma confirmed what I knew. I can handle <15' surge, power might be out a long time, and that tree would've been on my house had I not removed it last February.

When another Cat 2 or 3 comes this way, I'll re-evaluate and have a plan and supplies.

[cachukis]

3. Mine. I'm in TPA.

This was going to be bad for some. This was going to challenge the uninitiated.

Stress started as it approached the Leewards.

The weathermen have to show their technologies and skills to save lives. Some old time Floridians still got bagged.

Predicament.

There was overreaction and under reaction.

Stress stayed for a long time.

Wisdom espoused escape into long lines coming and going. Safety first.

Escape was limited. Preparation calmed the nerves.

The portents suspicious, played games.

Calculations ran a muck.

Best plans worked to a degree.

This was a focused episode on who we are as a nation.

Luck doesn't happen without effort.

Waiting and praying are for the reliant.

Study the evidence and play your best cards.

Clean up after your mistakes and get better for the next one.

[teach1st]

4. Yup!

Well said, cachukis. I'm in Pinellas. I wouldn't have evacuated (even when the Friday afternoon forecast moved Irma just offshore of us), but my mom had to leave her ALF by the bay and my daughter started freaking out slightly - her husband was out of town on business. So I packed up mom and went to my daughter's in Wesley Chapel. We thought briefly about leaving there for North Carolina, but wisely decided to stay. We are all fine.

I hope you're OK and have power. So many people are without still.