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2018 FL voter projection model - Day 1 (Original Post) OrlandoDem2 Oct 2018 OP
When the guy concedes he completely changed his forecasting methods at a late stage Awsi Dooger Oct 2018 #1
Thank you! I'm paranoid that people will stay home like in 2016! OrlandoDem2 Oct 2018 #2
 

Awsi Dooger

(14,565 posts)
1. When the guy concedes he completely changed his forecasting methods at a late stage
Sat Oct 13, 2018, 01:08 AM
Oct 2018

I tend to pay very little attention to his current conclusions. The best handicappers/analysts I know found a logical reliable approach very early and have remained true to it, with minor adjustments.

I agree with Nate Silver that early voting numbers have a weak relationship to the final outcome, and very little predictive insight:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/early-voting-was-a-misleading-indicator/

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