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Sancho

(9,065 posts)
Tue Nov 6, 2018, 03:15 PM Nov 2018

Any update on Florida at 2PM?

Here in Pinellas Democrats were ahead slightly with early and mailed votes. The repubs have caught up and gone ahead a little with voting today. Independent turnout is very large - and hopefully Gillum is ahead.

I haven't seen any numbers on the local news.

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Any update on Florida at 2PM? (Original Post) Sancho Nov 2018 OP
I am a little worried Carl45 Nov 2018 #1
Wrong obamanut2012 Nov 2018 #7
No word down here in So Fla mitch96 Nov 2018 #2
Steve Schale thinks it looks very bad in Florida due to GOP turnout Awsi Dooger Nov 2018 #3
No!! He predicts if we finish at +2 GOP lead Dems should be in good shape. OrlandoDem2 Nov 2018 #4
Independents are going to have to bail us out Awsi Dooger Nov 2018 #6
Here is Schale's blog post describing what you said Awsi Dooger Nov 2018 #10
Where are they getting these numbers from? Sunsky Nov 2018 #5
I am in SOFL -- there literally are no numbers yet obamanut2012 Nov 2018 #11
I'm in northern Broward Sunsky Nov 2018 #13
That si not what he is saying obamanut2012 Nov 2018 #9
The polls do not close for hours obamanut2012 Nov 2018 #8
There are numbers on election day turnout by party Awsi Dooger Nov 2018 #12
There will be a greater number of GOP crossover votes to Dem - at least for Governor. OrlandoDem2 Nov 2018 #14
I'd be sick at a split decision Awsi Dooger Nov 2018 #15

Carl45

(13 posts)
1. I am a little worried
Tue Nov 6, 2018, 03:46 PM
Nov 2018

Democrats clinging to a turnout lead of just under 2 percent in Jacksonville,but the reps are winning E day.not good

mitch96

(13,816 posts)
2. No word down here in So Fla
Tue Nov 6, 2018, 03:57 PM
Nov 2018

I drove by two polling places in Hollyweird and guess what!! NO LINES... I think everybody early voted. Or it might be a slow time (1pm) and it will pick up after people get out of work..
On the suggestion of some, I found out the last day of early voting in Fla was Sunday..
So following the crowd I waited on line for 2 hours in the heat to vote... I should have followed my instinct and just voted at my normal precinct and do the quick turn around.. I'm free during the day so it would have been a lot better than waiting...
The important thing is that I VOTED, go blue! ....
m

 

Awsi Dooger

(14,565 posts)
3. Steve Schale thinks it looks very bad in Florida due to GOP turnout
Tue Nov 6, 2018, 04:39 PM
Nov 2018

We had a narrow lead in early voting but are getting swamped in election day voting.

This is his ominous recent tweet:


OrlandoDem2

(2,064 posts)
4. No!! He predicts if we finish at +2 GOP lead Dems should be in good shape.
Tue Nov 6, 2018, 04:52 PM
Nov 2018

I am cautiously optimistic. But everyone needs to go effing vote!

 

Awsi Dooger

(14,565 posts)
6. Independents are going to have to bail us out
Tue Nov 6, 2018, 05:05 PM
Nov 2018

Certainly possible but Nelson and Gillum are going to need double digit edge among independents and not the 6-8 point edge reported in some polls.

I have seen reports that Republicans already lead election day turnout by more than 135,000 votes in Florida and it could reach 200,000.

I still can't believe anyone thought those polls with Nelson or Gillum ahead 4-7 points were legit. This is Florida.

 

Awsi Dooger

(14,565 posts)
10. Here is Schale's blog post describing what you said
Tue Nov 6, 2018, 05:12 PM
Nov 2018

+2 GOP turnout might be okay if independents break Democratic.

http://steveschale.com/blog/2018/11/6/like-the-jaguars-season-the-election-is-nearly-over.html

But this is from last night. I have sampled other venues and seen one Republican after another chirping that they are wildly exceeding projections in pivotal counties today. That was what foiled Schale in 2016. He used traditional forecasts in rural counties and they did not come close to holding up with Trump involved.

We'll just have to see

obamanut2012

(25,906 posts)
11. I am in SOFL -- there literally are no numbers yet
Tue Nov 6, 2018, 05:12 PM
Nov 2018

The polls do not close for hours. PBC, Broward, and Miami-Dade are very blue, and contained a huge percentage of the state's population.

Sunsky

(1,737 posts)
13. I'm in northern Broward
Tue Nov 6, 2018, 05:29 PM
Nov 2018

Anyone who believes Palm Beach county only has a 7.2K difference between D and R, I have a golden bridge to sell you. Then 50K D to 30K R in Broward, that's a joke. I can't believe folks are buying these numbers.

obamanut2012

(25,906 posts)
9. That si not what he is saying
Tue Nov 6, 2018, 05:10 PM
Nov 2018

Gloom and doom. They ahve no idea if we are "being swamped" anyway -- no numbers for today have been released.

 

Awsi Dooger

(14,565 posts)
12. There are numbers on election day turnout by party
Tue Nov 6, 2018, 05:25 PM
Nov 2018

Steve Schale blogged last night it could be between 150,000 and 200,000 GOP advantage on election day, but he thought 200,000 was unlikely and preferred the lower number.

Today I am seeing GOP loyalists crunching numbers and asserting it will go beyond 200,000.

If that's the case then we are going to need a severe edge among independents.

I still have some confidence. Normally the party with the national tilt wins the vast majority of razor tight races.

I just wish pollsters wouldn't insult intelligence with lopsided polling in Florida statewide races.

OrlandoDem2

(2,064 posts)
14. There will be a greater number of GOP crossover votes to Dem - at least for Governor.
Tue Nov 6, 2018, 05:32 PM
Nov 2018

One blogger is reporting that GOP thinks it’ll be a split decision.

We just need Dems to vote!!!!

 

Awsi Dooger

(14,565 posts)
15. I'd be sick at a split decision
Tue Nov 6, 2018, 05:47 PM
Nov 2018

Rick Scott is slime but with all that personal finance he could remain a slime in the senate for decades.

Let's win both of these things.

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