Both Parties See Risk From Trump Candidacy in Down-Ballot Races

[question everything]

(cross posting, with some modifications, from GD2016)

MINNETONKA, Minn.—In November, Republicans could lose a House seat in the western suburbs of Minneapolis, while Democrats are at risk of seeing a seat slip away on Long Island’s northern shore. The likely reason in both cases: Donald Trump. Sizing up the impact of the Republican presidential nominee’s unorthodox candidacy on down-ballot races has become a preoccupation of political strategists on both sides of the aisle.

(snip)

Democrats need to pick up 30 House seats to win back the majority, and the district outside Minneapolis represents one of their top targets. It is more affluent, higher-educated and more female than the average congressional district, all constituencies that tend to be disenchanted by the Republican nominee.

Terri Bonoff, a centrist Democratic Minnesota state senator and prolific fundraiser, is challenging four-term incumbent Republican Rep. Erik Paulsen, whose district President Barack Obama won handily in 2008 and 2012. n Minnesota’s March GOP primary, Mr. Trump won just 18% support, placing him a distant third behind Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz.

“I’m running because I’m saying no to Donald Trump,” said Ms. Bonoff, who had rejected previous overtures from Washington party leaders to run for the seat. “That’s black and white to me.” Ms. Bonoff matches her opponent on most fiscal questions but leans to the left on key social issues including abortion and gun control, two issues about which voters across the district raised repeated concerns in over a dozen interviews.

Lexi Tripps, a substitute teacher in Hopkins, Minn., jumped off her picnic blanket to greet Ms. Bonoff at a “Salsa in the Park” event where the candidate had come to shake hands. Ms. Tripps, a former Republican and Paulsen supporter, was so put off by Mr. Trump’s comments about women that she said she is going to vote for Democrats down the ticket this year. “We’re just Terri Bonoff people now,” she said, gesturing at a group of other women sharing her blanket.

Mr. Paulsen, who holds strong business ties to the district’s growing medical device industry, has tried to keep a distance from Mr. Trump. In an interview, he said his party’s presidential nominee had not yet “earned” his vote, backtracking from more supportive statements he made earlier in the spring.

More..

http://www.wsj.com/articles/both-parties-see-risk-from-trump-candidacy-in-down-ballot-races-1472672250

[Brickbat]

1. I can't read this article because I don't have a subscription; does it mention MN8 at all?

Between the anti-mining push from lots of local DFLers and Trump's bloviating about trade, he may not be such a liability for Mills.

[question everything]

3. No. Only the third and then the opposite in Long Island

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12512393826

Just read in the strib that some TV pulled ads attacking Mills.

[Wellstone ruled]

2. Tough district for any DFLer.

Kind of the home of Minny's super rich. Terri will have to counter the Mega Church get out to vote . If she makes inroads in that crowd or is a member,she can capture this seat.

[dflprincess]

4. Not as tough as it used to be

Obama won in 2008 (51%) and again in 2012 (49.6% to Romney's 48.8% - not great but still a win).

[Wellstone ruled]

5. Wow,that is a big change.

Only fimiliar with pre 2008. Actually 2004 and before.

[dflprincess]

6. Paulsen still cleaned up in those years

but the DFL didn't have the candidates who were as known in the district those years either.

[Wellstone ruled]

7. Very true,had to start from scratch

and understand there was lousy funding and basically a two person team.