What chance do we have, when all around us infection soar?

[question everything]

(From the WSJ and posted on GD)

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100214415609

[murielm99]

1. I don't know.

One mistake, and my husband and I will die. We are past seventy, and high risk.

At least we voted.

[MyMission]

2. Wear a mask, social distance, sanitize

Don't ride in elevators, don't dine out, do take walks and get fresh air and sunshine.
Stay calm, busy, productive, well hydrated, eating well-rounded healthy diet. Lol
A few suggestions or reminders on how to improve your chances of being safe.

Even as numbers rise, a few are trying to figure out patterns and sources of infection.

School openings
Family gatherings
Rally's, including Sturgis, rose garden and others
Religious services
Funerals and weddings
Fatigue from precautions!
Not wearing masks
Not social distancing

These are the major causes of the rise.
If I stick to the protocol, keep up my guard, I feel safe. I work in a retail setting 2- 3 days a week.
The rise is real, but still only a drop in the bucket compared with the population.

I think, sadly, that those not wearing masks are catching it and spreading it for the most part. And the return to schools, and the openings that bring people out when they should stay home are adding to it. But I'm not around those people, are you? And I always wear a mask. I'd suggest you stick with the program, and chances are good you won't catch it. No risky behavior!

Sadly, too many revert to pre-covid behavior the minute restrictions are lifted. Restaurants open? The ones that go are much more at risk. Masks no longer mandatory? We still need to wear them!

I hope you can relax and maintain the practices that have kept you safe so far!

[progree]

3. Not much. Minnesota now #12 in daily new cases per capita, our 4 U.S. neighbors are 1,2,3,5

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html
Daily new cases
Ranking, Name, 7 day moving average,
per 100,000 people, per day

#1 NoDak   137
#2 SoDak   131
#3 Wisconsin   80
#4 Montana   75
#5 Iowa   67
...
#12 Minnesota   43

I've been watching this list for months -- For weeks, Minnesota has been between #16 and #20. Even as its cases soar soar soar, it didn't change its ranking because the top third or so of states were soaring just as fast. But lately we've been soaring a little faster, apparently.

Yes, some states test more than others, and differ in positivity rates too. Thus ranking states by their reported cases (per capita or not) is unfair. A list like the above is just a starting point. It is what it is. If there is a website that tries to adjust a list like the above for these factors, please let me know.

Positivity rates and testing rates are compared here:

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/tracker/overview

==#########################################==

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/minnesota-coronavirus-cases.html
MN 14 day trend (7 day moving average Nov. 1 vs. 7 day moving average 14 days before)
Cases: +60%
Deaths: +37%
Hospitalized: +52%

While the number of reported cases can be partly blamed on more testing, hospitalizations have been growing just about as fast. Below is Covid patients in hospitals each day:

588   May 31 -- pandemic peak for this metric, until late October
241   Sep 19 -- post-peak low point
719   Nov 1 -- latest, 3.0 times the Sept 19 level

==#########################################==

MPR's report for today is well worth at least looking at the graphs, updated 230 PM 11/2/20
https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/11/02/latest-on-covid19-in-mn

I pasted a couple of the many graphs below.

2,954 new cases were reported today, above the 2,500 or so  7-day-moving-average, so that will push the moving average up some more as earlier days drop out of the 7-day span.

BELOW UPDATED 1140 AM 11/3/20

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/11/03/latest-on-covid19-in-mn

3,483 new cases. Hospitalizations now 852 (197 in ICU's). Doesn't say what new hospital admissions are (which is what the 2nd graph below is about)

BELOW UPDATED 1140 AM 11/3/20


BELOW UPDATED 1140 AM 11/3/20

[question everything]

5. Almost looks like we are on a third wave

I wonder whether school opening plays a role, or just “Covid-19 fatigue”

Whether masks still play a role here. These days we see a lot more masked people in the stores than before the state mandate.

[progree]

6. Looking at the daily new cases, looks like two gentle foothills leading up to a mighty mountain

I dunno. I just see gross stupidity all around and simply that far too few care.

My 2 neighbors, one is a RWer and one is a LWer. Both (at different times) approached me and walked right up within 3 feet to talk to me. None of us wearing masks, as I / we usually don't wear masks just to go outside in our townhouse community. It was outside, yes, but maskless to maskless 3 feet apart spraying at each other.

I generally don't talk directly at someone, so I'm spraying my droplets down and a little to one side (while still making some eye contact), but I don't see that behavior in others -- rather, direct straight to the face. Great social skills in another era.

I'm not at all surprised by the RWer, especially this one is a real lulu.

I am extremely very disappointed at the LWer - he was our Democratic precinct captain (in 2010 and who knows when else), and the townhome communities long-time president (10 years) and currently the vice president. A real pillar of the community. So why doesn't he get this Covid thing.

I added to my number 4 above that some MN health officials think the confirmed case counts are only 1/10 to 1/5 of the total out there. So instead of 2.7% of the population having it or had it, think 14% to 27%. And instead of adding 3.9 percentage points in the next 3 months (assuming the current rate miraculously holds), think adding 20% to 39%.

So the people who think the vast majority of us are going to get it eventually are probably right (barring a vaccine soon that works, not something like the flu vaccine that in a good year is only 50% effective)

Though still to slow it down so our hospitals aren't overwhelmed is worth the sacrifices. But our state officials haven't done shit since mid-September when the cases started rising again and far surpassing anything we've seen before - by multiples for chrissake. They just cluck cluck day after day about the numbers and lecture us to be more careful. Exception: Minneapolis Mayor Frey at least closed bar seating, as well as standing at the bars -- that was a courageous move, at least relatively speaking. Sigh.

[progree]

4. Our total cumulative cases is 2,725 per 100,000 (2.7%). 37 of these drops fills the bucket

Last edited Tue Nov 3, 2020, 04:41 AM - Edit history (2)

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/minnesota-coronavirus-cases.html

And at the current rate of 43 new cases per day per 100,000, it takes about 23 days to add another percentage point.

3 months of this at the above rate would add another 3.9 percentage points.

Edited to add: some of our state health officials have been quoted as saying the number of cases out there is probably 5 to 10 times the number of confirmed cases in the statistics. If true, so instead of 2.7% having or having had Covid, it's more like 14% to 27%. Instead of a drop in the bucket, it's more like marbles in a cup.

And instead of adding 3.9 percentage points in the next 3 months (assuming the current rate miraculously holds), think adding 20 to 39 percentage points

[progree]

7. 3,483 new cases today, far far above the approx 2,600 7-day-average we saw yesterday

https://minnesota.cbslocal.com/2020/11/03/coronavirus-in-minnesota-another-3483-new-infections-reported-death-toll-nears-2500/

Yesterday's graphs (scroll down a bit to bottom half of that post)

[progree]

8. I updated the graphs in post #3 (clink the lick in the message below). Added a graph

Yesterday's graphs (scroll down a bit to bottom half of that post)

Latest MPR (updated 1140a 11/3) https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/11/03/latest-on-covid19-in-mn

Info on positivity rate: was tame 5% until 2 weeks ago, no longer.

The positive test rate continues to climb, signaling that the increasing spread of the disease across the state. Officials watch that positive test rate closely and become concerned when it goes over 5 percent.

The seven-day average rate is currently more than 12 percent. The one-day rate from Tuesday’s reported data spiked to more than 30 percent.