Poll: Pennsylvania Democrats surging with double-digit leads

[workinclasszero]

BY TAL AXELROD - 08/30/18 01:21 PM EDT

Democratic incumbents running for reelection in Pennsylvania hold double-digit leads over their Republican opponents, according to a Franklin & Marshall College poll released Thursday.

Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D-Pa.) holds a comfortable 13-point lead among registered voters in the survey over Rep. Lou Barletta (R-Pa.), 47 to 34 percent. Nineteen percent of voters remain undecided.

Casey, a two-term senator, has a 41 percent approval rating, according to the poll. Barletta, meanwhile, is hurt by low name-recognition, with 53 percent of voters not knowing enough about him to give an opinion.

Pollsters also found that Gov. Tom Wolf (D-Pa.) holds a 17-point lead over state Sen. Scott Wagner (R), 52 to 35 percent. Twelve percent of voters remain undecided in that race.

Wolf, who is running for his second term, has a 46 percent approval rating in the new survey. He too is aided by his opponent’s low name recognition, with 42 percent of registered voters not knowing enough about Wagner to give an opinion.

Both Democrats are also buoyed by President Trump’s low approval rating in the state, which stands at about 38 percent in the poll.

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/404396-poll-pennsylvania-democrats-surging-with-double-digit-leads

[beachbum bob]

1. be good if this is happening in all state and local races as well

[FakeNoose]

2. Gov. Tom Wolf and Senator Bob Casey are doing a great job

They deserve to be re-elected. Good luck to all the Democratic candidates!

[rtracey]

3. good

GO GO GO GO GO .......GO GO GO GO GO .......GO GO GO GO GO .......GO GO GO GO GO .......GO GO GO GO GO .......GO GO GO GO GO .......GO GO GO GO GO .......GO GO GO GO GO .......GO GO GO GO GO .......GO GO GO GO GO .......GO GO GO GO GO .......GO GO GO GO GO .......GO GO GO GO GO .......GO GO GO GO GO .......GO GO GO GO GO .......GO GO GO GO GO .......GO GO GO GO GO .......GO GO GO GO GO .......GO GO GO GO GO .......GO GO GO GO GO .......GO GO GO GO GO .......GO GO GO GO GO .......GO GO GO GO GO .......GO GO GO GO GO .......GO GO GO GO GO .......GO GO GO GO GO .......GO GO GO GO GO .......OK I'LL STOP

[DeminPennswoods]

4. Link to FandM Poll

https://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/542437385203702944-f-m-poll-release-august-2018.pdf

Voter Interest and Turnout
Nearly half (54%) of the state’s registered voters say they are “very interested” in the 2018 elections. Voter interest is related to both political party and political ideology. At the moment, more Democrats (60%) than Republicans (53%) or independents (33%) say they are “very interested.” More self-described liberals (62%) than conservatives (53%) or moderates (51%) say they are “very interested.” The outcomes of the 2018 mid-terms will be driven by differences in voter turnout among partisans, but likely voter models based on administrative data and self-described interest produce different results. For example, two in five (43%) voters in the sample have voted in the past three general elections; this produces similar proportions of Republicans (47%) and Democrats (44%) being likely to vote if past voting is an indicator of interest
and turnout. But more Democrats (59%) than Republicans (47%) qualify as likely voters when self-descr
ibed interest and intention to vote is used to measure turnout.

There's also a very good historical comparison chart of election indicators on page 11 of the pdf.

[DeminPennswoods]

5. Rothfus flailing, too

TPM has a story quoting Politico that the GOP is looking at pulling funding from Comstock (Va), Rothfus and Blum (IA) based on polling and other factors.