New Polls: Scott Perry, Lloyd Smucker races are too close to call

[modrepub]

With less than a week to go until Election Day, a pair of central Pennsylvania congressional races are too close to call, suggesting deep trouble for two Republican incumbents in a state that President Donald Trump considers a jewel in his 2016 crown.

New polls this week by ABC-27 and GOP-leaning Susquehanna Polling in Harrisburg show Republican U.S. Rep. Scott Perry leading Democrat George Scott 49-46 percent, with 4 percent of likely voters undecided, the station reported. The margin of error was 5 percent.

"As we know, the Democrats' strategy is to make this election a referendum on the president and that's a winning strategy for George Scott, and I think that's why this race shows it's very close," pollster Jim Lee told the station. "I predict this will be a razor-thin margin for either candidate."

Meanwhile, in the neighboring 11th District, incumbent GOP U.S. Rep. Lloyd Smucker holds a 50-46 percent lead over Democratic challenger Jess King with 3 percent of voters undecided. The telephone survey of 311 likely voters had a margin of error of 5.6 percentage points, the station reported.


https://www.pennlive.com/capitol-notebook/2018/10/new_polls_scott_perry_lloyd_sm.html


Central PA Congressional Districts that are usually R strongholds

[badhair77]

1. My best friend from HS has been donating to Scott but now

is canvassing on Sat. She said she just had to do something to get rid of Perry. Giving money was not enough. I hope Perry goes down.

[beachbum bob]

2. Republicans are under stress every where and it's healthcare as much as its

Trump...

[DeminPennswoods]

3. Direct link to PA-10 poll

https://media.abc27.com/nxs-whtmtv-media-us-east-1/document_dev/2018/10/29/Toplines-PACD10-ABC27-SPR_1540843986286_60625356_ver1.0.pdf

Some interesting other stats:
53% of respondents are registered Rs, but only 40% consider themselves Rs.
38% are registered Ds, but only 30% consider themselves Ds
6% are registered Is, but a whopping 30% consider themselves Is.

PA is a closed primary state meaning you can't vote in a partisan primary unless you're registered with that particular party. This area is generally Republican so it's not surprising most voters would be registered Rs. I'm sure in many races the GOP primary is effectively the general election.

Right track/wrong track is 45/46. Trump approve/disapprove is 48/43.

On preference for generic candidate, work with/check on Trump is 45/52. Hope G Scott makes sure voters know he'll be a check on Trump as that seems to be a winning issue.