Poll: Nation's first carbon fee leading among voters
Washington voters have long grappled with the idea of taxing carbon polluters. But new data indicates that support may have finally reached a tipping point: A recent statewide Crosscut/Elway Poll shows that Initiative 1631, which would charge a fee to some Washington carbon emitters, could succeed where past efforts have failed.
The poll, which was conducted from Oct. 5-9, found 50 percent approval among the 400 registered voters polled. Thirty-six percent said that they were against the initiative, while 14 percent were undecided. The poll has a margin of error of 5 points.
Support for the initiative is greater than what I-732, a similar carbon initiative, was receiving at this point two years ago. Unlike the current carbon fee initiative, that 2016 ballot measure had been criticized by many left-leaning groups and communities of color, managing only 40 percent support in that October’s Elway poll. In the run-up to the 2016 election, Stuart Elway, the president of Elway Research, told the Seattle Times that any measure polling with less than 50 percent in October is likely to fail. He was right: The measure ended up receiving 41 percent of the vote with all ballots counted.
The current initiative is positioned for a more favorable result, but its passage is far from certain. Elway says that ballot initiatives tend to poll favorably in the months preceding a vote only to decline in support as the election date draws near. It’s not a hard-and-fast rule, but Elway says that of the 90 initiatives he has polled in the past four decades, two-thirds lost ground from summer to election time. At 50 percent, it’s hard to guess precisely what will happen with the carbon fee between now and Nov. 6.
“It’s doing better than the last one,” Elway said. “But if you’re at 50 percent and there’s still a month to run before the election, there’s a lot of time for things to change. It’s on the cusp.
https://crosscut.com/2018/10/poll-nations-first-carbon-fee-leading-among-voters
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