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Tue Apr 27, 2021, 06:11 PM

Are some of our assumptions about the 2020 Election in WI correct?

Specifically, I am referring to a narrative that says that increases to Trump support in rural areas was offset by increases in Biden support in the Milwaukee & Madison metropolitan areas.

The data I am looking at is from the NYT: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/upshot/2020-election-map.html

This map allows you to see the total votes in 2020, but it also shows shifts from 2016.

The interesting thing I am seeing when I look at the shift (Change from 2016) map is that while some rural areas shifted more red (Republican), there were also a lot of areas in in northern and western WI that shifted to the Democrats, even if they overall were heavily Republican.

The other interesting thing was that there was a shift to the Republicans from within the City of Milwaukee, City of Racine, and City of Kenosha. This seems in line with the national numbers that did show a shift in Black and Hispanic support toward Trump in 2020. Do you think this was a backlash to the unrest due to George Floyd/Jacob Blake, decreases in Democratic turnout in these areas, and/or the effects of misinformation on social media? Or maybe something else I am not considering?

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Reply Are some of our assumptions about the 2020 Election in WI correct? (Original post)
TheRealNorth Apr 2021 OP
PortTack Apr 2021 #1
TheRealNorth Apr 2021 #2

Response to TheRealNorth (Original post)

Tue Apr 27, 2021, 07:11 PM

1. If you look at the history of WI and presidential voting, they only voted qgop once in the last

24 years. So that shift was back to their more typical pattern of voting

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Response to PortTack (Reply #1)

Tue Apr 27, 2021, 07:55 PM

2. I think this was different

The shift in the suburban vote to the Democrats is something historically atypical for WI (although it mirrors the national trend).

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