Has anyone released any polling...

[Ken Burch]

...showing what Labour's support level would be if Eagle or Smith were leader instead of Corbyn?

Seems as though there should be numbers at hand(if the arguments of the "rebels" have any validity) showing a dramatic increase in Labour support if a different leader is chosen-especially showing a surge to Labour in Scotland-no Labour victory of any sort is possible without massive gains in Scottish seats-or in the North of England, where the sudden UKIP poll collapse from 15% to 7& should make a lot of Tory marginals with a strong UKIP vote in '15 winnable for Labour.

Just as the David Miliband types should have been able to show that the right-wing Miliband brother would be massively stronger than the slightly-more moderate one-yet somehow never did.

[RogueTrooper]

1. I saw this thread a couple of days ago

but I thought that it would take a couple of days, at least, for the polling companies to re-tool after the referendum and start gathering polling information from around the Labour party leadership.

This is some of the information that has come out of a recent poll by ComRes.



I don't have much detai on the poll itself. I got this from a post on Political Betting. PB would probably be the best place to find polls such at these; I would look there.

[Ken Burch]

2. Thanks. However, that simply discusses a Corbyn-may race.

And a new prime minister is always going to start out with a clear advantage over a sitting opposition leader, simply due to the novelty.

I'll check out your links...but if no one has any hard evidence that making Eagle or Smith leader would dramatically increase Labour's standing in the polls, that by itself would discredit the endless an.ti-Corbyn conspiracy with the PLP.

[RogueTrooper]

3. I saw some polling for that - the ComRes poll carried a bit of it

There is some stuff in the poll

Independent / Sunday Mirror Political Poll

There are tables (pdf) at the bottom of the article. Hope this helps!

[muriel_volestrangler]

4. ICM poll - no significant difference for leader, so far; Corbyn slightly better if anything

On core voting intentions, May’s Conservatives increase their orthodox polling lead from 8-points before her ascension last week to 10-points now, just shy of the politically symbolic 40% mark. They stand on 39% (+1), but Corbyn’s Labour sheds another point, now below the equally symbolic 30% mark, polling just 29% (-1). The figures for publication are shown in the first column of the table below:

But what impact do naming the Labour leadership contenders have on these numbers? The new Prime Minister may smirk as she reads that naming her and her current opposite number, Jeremy Corbyn, pushes the Tories up to stratospheric heights of 43%, while Labour dip further (29%). Should she be concerned by the Labour challengers, she may smile just a little more when she sees that Angela Eagle pushes the Labour share down to 26%, while Owen Smith does slightly better by securing his party a potential 27%, both short of the number that the much derided current leader polls.

https://www.icmunlimited.com/polls/

As Anthony Wells at UK Polling Report says, that may not mean that much this early, especially with someone as unknown as Owen Smith, but it does show there's no big "anyone but Corbyn" movement in the voters.

Sadly, it looks bleak whoever is the leader, though. We'll see if the Tories screw up Brexit negotiations and Labour can manage to look like the more preferable alternative.

[Denzil_DC]

5. It's quite astonishing that Labour still polls around 30%

given its current (and long-time) rifts and shenanigans. I guess that's Labour's base, give or take. How that would translate to individual constituencies is anyone's guess.

[T_i_B]

6. I think Labour could hold in the cities...

...although I would expect UKIP to make inroads into the old coal mining areas. And Labour / Tory marginals are looking like a bit of a write off at present. That much is very worrying for me as I live in such a constituency and don't want a Tory MP, which is looking increasingly likely.

The elderly are a major issue here. Here in Britain we have an aging population, it's the elderly who vote, and Corbyn does not do very well at all with elderly voters.

[RogueTrooper]

8. I am wondering about UKIP's vote...

...is going to hold up post referendum.

However, I don't see the Labour Party showing much strength in the marginals. Whilst losing 100 seats sounds a bit bleak to me I can see them loosing more than a few handfuls.


The wild-card are the Lib Dems who's route back to national conversation are politicking for the Remain votes. They will be doing "an SNP" but with a different kind of Yes vote.

[T_i_B]

9. I am enticed by the Lib Dems at present...

However, whilst I like the look of them nationally it makes no sense to support them locally to me. I think the Lib Dems are currently hoping for pro EU Labour (and maybe even a few Tories) to split and join up with them because at present their "brand" is severely tainted from the Clegg years.

The best thing that could happen right now is for Owen Smith to win the leadership contest and suddenly turn into a strong leader capable of uniting the left. However, it may be more likely that Corbyn holds on, in which case a split may be inevitable (if hugely damaging).

[Denzil_DC]

10. To "do an SNP",

they'd have to have displayed some competence in power. That's done more to bolster the SNP's credibility among voters than anything else.

The course of the go-it-alone Tories gives some credence to the idea that the Lib Dems may have been a voice of sanity in the coalition government, but I think their competence is completely unproven.

UKIP's record in the latest batch of council by-elections is very patchy, if that's any indication - up to 11% negative swing running against Labour in one recent race. They've got their own problems with big changes afoot among their leadership.

[RogueTrooper]

11. I meant by doing an SNP

The SNP were the main electoral beneficiary of IndyRef#1. Post referendum the wide community of yes voters, now not only with a common sense of identity but a common grievance. moved en-mass to the SNP. I don't think the post BrexitRef Remain vote will move to the LibDems in quite the uniform fashion but I do think there will be movement.

[Denzil_DC]

12. All very well, but as one of those now SNP voters,

I don't think the SNP would have benefited - and so far hung on to those votes and new members - without being able to demonstrate competence. In particular in comparison to the Scottish Labour Party, where a large number of their voters have come from.

I'd bailed on Labour years before the indyref, and been a floating/tactical voter for a long time. A critical mass happened in the 2015 GE where I could actually vote for a decent candidate (Brendan O'Hara) from a party the vast majority of whose policies I agreed with enthusiastically and have reasonable confidence it wouldn't be a wasted vote or let a Tory in.

Not being prone to constant tantrumy infighting has no doubt helped as well.

The Lib Dems' advantage, and problem, has always been their chameleon-like ability to shift ground to pander to local voters. The spell in coalition called their bluff on that. I'm still not convinced they've recovered from that taint (I'll never vote for them again unless we go back to being too close for comfort to getting Tory representation in my constituency - Argyll & Bute - which is a really long shot, and even then they'd need to field a very good candidate and guarantee no deals with the Tories).

[Ken Burch]

14. The SNP were actually the beneficiary of Scottish Labour's corruption and conservatism.

This allowed the SNP to present itself as (accurately) less-corrupt and (less accurately, but still partially true)to the left of Labour.

Labour will only recover in Scotland when all vestiges of its existing Scottish establishment are removed from any positions of leadership and, if need be, expelled from the party entirely.

SNP is not ruling the roost in Scotland due to "nationalism"-few Scots hate the English as a nationality and racist parties have their lowest levels of support in the UK among Scottish voters-it has risen because Labour, the Tories, and the LibDems (through their wholehearted support of Cameron in the Coalition)are all seen as part of a discredited status quo.

[Denzil_DC]

15. The Scottish Labour Party's conservatism

reflected a long-time double bind: on many issues, Scottish Labour's membership (and a substantial proportion of the electorate) were broadly to the left of the UK Labour Party's stances, but were told that they had to support policies that were acceptable to those in the South East of England because that's where the bulk of the national votes were - the old argument about having to win power no matter what compromises that entails.

This first became unavoidably apparent for me way back when UK Labour abandoned its opposition to Trident - old (northern English) activists in my local CLP and CND group bemoaned the move and were visibly torn, but said it had to be done because "people down south won't go along with it".

People wore this for a long, long time. Some gritted their teeth through the Blair years because Gordon Brown (not a total firebrand in his youth, but he had written a well-received biography of Red Clydesider James Maxton, among other things) was seen as the leader-in-waiting and commanded some respect and grounds for hope. In the end, he was a grave disappointment, and that knocked the stuffing out of many of them. Eventually, with too few exceptions, leading party figures didn't just adopt RW policies for electoral expediency, but because they believed in them, and weren't afraid of showing it publicly because they assumed their voters had nowhere to go.

Scottish Labour was (and as a rump, still is) the party of the Establishment in Scotland. Here's a roundup of how incestuous the Scottish political scene has been:

Oh what a tangled web we weave, When first we practise to deceive: BBC Scotland and the Labour Party

The Family resides in Glasgow and is presided over by Ken McQuarrie. Ken MacQuarrie’s Head of News at BBC Scotland is John, John Boothman. John is married to Susan, Susan is Susan Deacon. Susan is a former Labour MSP and Health Minister at Holyrood.

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/bbc-chief-too-close-to-labour-claims-ex-colleague.22317694

Ken’s Head of Online News is Tom, Tom Connor. Tom and John are said to have offered media training to Labour Party wannabe politicians. Tom’s department operates BBC Scotland blogs; infamous for their ban on public comments, unlike any other part of the UK.

Another Tom is Tom McCabe. Tom is a member of the Scottish Labour Party and used to be an MSP. Tom also used to be the partner of Lorraine, Lorraine Davidson. Lorraine’s career has swung between the Labour Party and the BBC. She used to be a spin-doctor – with the Labour Party or was it the BBC? Not too sure on that one. Lorraine became a weel-kent voice on BBC Scotland frequently ushered in to air her views on all the big issues of the day. Lorraine is now married to David.

David is David Martin and he’s a Labour Party MEP. David Martin is friends with Catriona, Catriona Renton. Catriona loves politics which is good because that’s what she covers as a BBC Scotland reporter. Catriona was a Labour councillor in Glasgow with ambitions to become an MSP but sadly didn’t get elected in 2003. Catriona is a friendly sort of lady with Facebook chums the likes of Jackie Baillie ( herself a very friendly lady who is also chums with Gary Robertson and Alan Clements hubby of Kirsty Wark ), Yousuf Hamid, Tom Harris, Mike Dailly, Frank McAveety, John Robertson, John Park, Steven Purcell, Dave Watson – is there Labour person Catriona isn’t chummy with?

https://lenathehyena.wordpress.com/2014/08/29/oh-what-a-tangled-web-we-weave-when-first-we-practice-to-deceive-bbc-scotland-and-the-labour-party/

It goes on and on. Now, in a small country with a population of around 5 million, a degree of incestuousness in politics is unavoidable, but the SNP's young enough as a major force at the moment that it isn't yet entrenched as the new Establishment. There are some of the usual problems at constituency level, but they're not widespread (yet, at least), and given the level of hostile media scrutiny, its presence in Holyrood is holding up well.

Those media-Scottish Labour ties still endure, which warps much of our political coverage up here. But it became so blatant that, particularly during the indyref, it was impossible to ignore, and many developed a mistrust of the mainstream media and found other sources of information that bypassed it. So, in some ways resembling what seems to be happening with Corbyn's support within the Labour membership at the moment, attacks start to lose their impact, and even rebound. You can only mislead people so many times before at least some of them get tired of it and switch off.

Campaigning alongside the Tories and wholeheartedly adopting Project Fear - effectively abusing (verbally, on the record, in a number of stupid cases) those taken-for-granted Labour voters who just happened to support Yes for their own valid reasons - just sealed the deal.

[Ken Burch]

20. Absolutely.

And it's thanks to this that Mhari Black, who should be a future Labour leader, joined the SNP and sits with them at Westminster.

[Denzil_DC]

21. The SNP also have Tommy Sheppard.

Ex-NUS Vice-President, ex-Deputy Leader of Hackney Borough Council, ex-Assistant General Secretary of Scottish Labour till 1997, when he was made redundant, basically for being too leftwing.

He left Labour in disillusionment in 2003 after 25 years' membership, joined the SNP in 2014, and is now an MP.

He's also one of four current candidates for SNP Deputy Leader. It's an unusual contest as there are three really strong candidates standing - MEP Alyn Smith, SNP Leader at Westminster Angus Robertson and Sheppard - and one relatively unknown but seemingly fine local councillor, Chris McEleny, and I don't cringe at the prospect of any of them winning and expect it to be a thoroughly civilized contest.

Contrast and compare:



(from Private Eye in June)

[T_i_B]

16. The Lib Dems problem isn't competence

It's betrayal. Screwing over large swathes of their own voters for a shot at power as the minority party in a coalition. That's something that's done huge and very obvious damage to the Liberal Democrats.

[Denzil_DC]

17. Well, yes, there is that!

I'd add a deficit in competence to that, both in terms of leadership (thanks a pantload, Clegg) and their time sharing power.

[T_i_B]

18. Also just found out....

...that Nick Clegg is the new Lib Dem spokeswomble on matters relating to leaving the EU.

High profile? Yes. But almost everyone has long since concluded that he might just be a bit of a pillock.

[Denzil_DC]

19. Don't get me started ...

Going into coalition was bad enough. Not striking a better deal given they held all the cards was unbelievable. He could have walked out of the post-election meetings having bargained hard to stalemate, and dared the Tories to either try serving as a minority or go to the country again, or even seriously entertained the idea of some sort of collaboration in a rainbow coalition, and likely seen the Lib Dems' vote share increase in the inevitable follow-up election.

I consoled myself at first with the prospects of PR (a long-term aim of mine), then he allowed even that to go to a free vote. Add to that the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, and I've no idea what he thought he was up to.

[Ken Burch]

13. The most recent post-ref polls showed a big slump in UKIP support...down from 15% to 7%

A lot of voters have realized UKIP lied to them.

This presents a real chance for Labour to recover in the North, IF Labour can get it's anti-austerity agenda(such as McDonnell's national investment bank proposal, which would make a huge difference in northern working-class areas)into wife circulation.

[Ken Burch]

7. Thank you. Clearly the goal of the anti-Corbynites is NOT to get Labour into power.

These are the ideological children of those who split away from Labour in the Eighties(knowing that there was never a chance of the "SDP" doing anything but guaranteeing repeated Tory landslides)because they would rather see endless right-wing dominance than allow Labour to come to power on any manifesto even a millimeter to the left of James Callaghan.

Today, despite their cynical implications that THEY care about the dispossessed more than the Left does, the anti-Corbynites are just as willing to sabotage their own party, the ONLY party in which they could ever have had political careers, rather than accept a leade that doesn't defer to their essentially conservative sense of entitlement.