UK: Restriction should continue 'most of a year'

[muriel_volestrangler]

Policies to limit the spread of coronavirus would need to be in place for "at least most of a year" to prevent intensive care units being overwhelmed, according to official scientific advice to the government.

The documents, prepared by the UK's Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), said alternating between more and less strict measures could "plausibly be effective at keeping the number of critical care cases within capacity".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-51969508

This appears to have been published 4 days ago:

https://www.gov.uk/government/groups/scientific-advisory-group-for-emergencies-sage-coronavirus-covid-19-response
SPI-M-O: Consensus view on behavioural and social interventions (16 March 2020)

It was agreed that a combination of case isolation, household isolation and social
distancing of vulnerable groups is very unlikely to prevent critical care facilities being
overwhelmed.
2. It was agreed that it is unclear whether or not the addition of general social distancing
measures to case isolation, household isolation and social distancing of vulnerable groups
would curtail the epidemic by reducing the reproduction number to less than 1.
3. It was agreed that the addition of both general social distancing and school closures to
case isolation, household isolation and social distancing of vulnerable groups would be
likely to control the epidemic when kept in place for a long period. SPI-M-O agreed that
this strategy should be followed as soon as practical, at least in the first instance.
4. It was agreed that a policy of alternating between periods of more and less strict social
distancing measures could plausibly be effective at keeping the number of critical care
cases within capacity. These would need to be in place for at least most of a year. Under
such as policy, at least half of the year would be spent under the stricter social distancing
measures.
5. The triggers for measures to be enacted and lifted could be set at a level of UK nations
and regions. The duration of control periods would be less important than the extent to
which contacts are reduced. There would be a 2-3 week delay between measures being
put into place and their impact being felt in ICU.

[no_hypocrisy]

1. I *knew* that closing places for a mere two weeks was either lying or magical thinking.

[DarthDem]

2. If that were true, then

Keeping stricter measures in place for a shorter period of time ought to be just as effective, no? This is the second dodgy report I've read about this from the UK government, which can't seem to make up its mind about what to do.

[Dworkin]

3. Agreed

Folks,

The science seems to point to longer lockdowns, maybe three to six months. My feeling is that this virus will hang around at some level now that its out of the box. Sorry to be so negative.

D.