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Mon Dec 18, 2017, 11:22 AM

NC District 8 is flippable

Scott Huffman - Navy Veteran, Community Activist Grassroots Organizer of Indivisible Charlotte and small business owner is running for North Carolina Congressional District 8. We can #FlipDistrict8 and we need financial help to do so. Special Interests groups are flooding the district to keep it in their hands. Koch Brothers, NRA, Big Oil.

We can do this. Thank you so much for your support.

http://bit.ly/Flipthe8th

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Arrow 13 replies Author Time Post
Reply NC District 8 is flippable (Original post)
IndivisibleCLT Dec 2017 OP
FBaggins Dec 2017 #1
Tiggeroshii Dec 2017 #3
FBaggins Dec 2017 #4
Tiggeroshii Dec 2017 #5
FBaggins Dec 2017 #9
Tiggeroshii Dec 2017 #11
FBaggins Dec 2017 #10
IndivisibleCLT Dec 2017 #7
FBaggins Dec 2017 #8
Tiggeroshii Dec 2017 #13
Tiggeroshii Dec 2017 #12
saidsimplesimon Dec 2017 #2
IndivisibleCLT Dec 2017 #6

Response to IndivisibleCLT (Original post)

Mon Dec 18, 2017, 11:26 AM

1. Are the lines for the 8th being redrawn?

I thought that the incumbent won the 8th by almost 18 points last year.

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Response to FBaggins (Reply #1)

Mon Dec 18, 2017, 11:33 AM

3. Trump won AL by 30 points last year

 

Somehow that didn't quite matter

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Response to Tiggeroshii (Reply #3)

Mon Dec 18, 2017, 11:43 AM

4. The non-incumbent Republican candidate appeared to be a molester

That doesn't appear to be the case in the mentioned house race, does it?

I can't find the 8th on a "competitive races" list. The NC 2nd, 3rd, 9th, and 13th are all listed as "Likely R" on at least one list (Cook, Sabato, etc.)... but nothing in NC was anywhere closer to toss-up than that.

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Response to FBaggins (Reply #4)

Mon Dec 18, 2017, 11:52 AM

5. It doesnt need to be

 

The constituents are what make it competitive, not cook or sabato

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Response to Tiggeroshii (Reply #5)

Mon Dec 18, 2017, 02:47 PM

9. Cook/Sabato/InsideElections/etc... are the experts at reading the constituents.

They all have the race rated at Safe/Solid R. We can't just declare the race to be "flappable" without some evidence

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Response to FBaggins (Reply #9)

Mon Dec 18, 2017, 02:55 PM

11. Cook and sabato are broad. The minute and relevant details require more analysis and understanding

 

Of the districts. There is a reason why there were dozens of "Solid R" seats that flipped or came within a percent for dems in 2008 and 2006 and dozens of "solid D " seats that flipped for republicans in 2012. Because given a wave election, seats like what the OP is talking about do get flipped if the right investment was made to it before the election. And you don't want to be those democrats that see a race with no commercial investment put into it, come within .5% of winning a seat that had absolutely no effort put into it. The reality is given the right environment every single seat is flippable if the ground game is put in place, and often it is the ground game and investment that folks like sabato and cook use to decide if it is flippable or not.

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Response to Tiggeroshii (Reply #5)

Mon Dec 18, 2017, 02:48 PM

10. My apologies.

I just realized that this thread was you throwing your hat in the ring.

I wish you the best of luck. We absolutely should have candidates in all of these races in case things move further our way.

Go get 'em!

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Response to FBaggins (Reply #4)

Mon Dec 18, 2017, 12:41 PM

7. 2016 Election

Thomas Mills who ran against Hudson only lost by 8Pt's. This is an off election year. Anti-Trump sentiment is fueling a blue wave.

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Response to IndivisibleCLT (Reply #7)

Mon Dec 18, 2017, 02:33 PM

8. Mills lost by 59-41, not eight points.

This is an off election year

Which doesn't help, it adds to the difficulty (because turnout is much lower and that tends to favor red candidates). In 2014, he won by almost 30 points.

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Response to FBaggins (Reply #8)

Mon Dec 18, 2017, 03:00 PM

13. In off year elections, low turnout actually favors the opposition party

 

Since the presidents party's voters are in power already and dont see a need to turn out as much as the opposing party.

Check out turnout in 2010 and 2006. The turnout is super low because the president's party is not turning out.

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Response to IndivisibleCLT (Reply #7)

Mon Dec 18, 2017, 02:58 PM

12. Exactly.

 

Its absurd to say we shouldnt try tobcompete in every every district in a year we know will likely be favorable to us.

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Response to IndivisibleCLT (Original post)

Mon Dec 18, 2017, 11:31 AM

2. CLT, thank you

Yes, we Can do this. Thank you and all those activists who work tirelessly for our Republic. Nothing would please me more than to send a resounding Alabama FU to the Koch Brothers, et al (may their words bite them from behind).
This is the DU member formerly known as saidsimplesimon.

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Response to IndivisibleCLT (Original post)

Mon Dec 18, 2017, 12:40 PM

6. Gerrymandering

District 8 is gerrymandered down to the street level. My home town of Spencer is split down my old neighborhood. My old street is District 13 Ted Budd.

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