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Wed Dec 20, 2017, 09:28 PM

2018 US Senate Election in MT,ND,and WV- Could Democratic incumbents win by a landslide margin?

Manchin(D-WV) won his last US Senate election in 2012 by a 24 percent margin. Manchin could win by a similar margin in 2018.
Former ND Democratic US Senator Kent Conrad won his first US Senate election in 1986 by a less than 1 percent margin. Conrad won re-election in 1992,1994,2000, and 2006 by a landslide margin. Heitkamp(D-ND) re-election margin of victory can be similar to Conrad and Dorgan's margin of victory.
Tester(D-MT) 2018 margin of victory can be similar to Baucus's(D-MT) 1978,1984,1990,and 2002 margin of victory.

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Reply 2018 US Senate Election in MT,ND,and WV- Could Democratic incumbents win by a landslide margin? (Original post)
nkpolitics1212 Dec 2017 OP
dlwickham Dec 2017 #1
nkpolitics1212 Dec 2017 #4
Dawson Leery Dec 2017 #2
2naSalit Dec 2017 #3

Response to nkpolitics1212 (Original post)

Wed Dec 20, 2017, 09:41 PM

1. Manchin will win

but not by 24%; I'd bet 10-12 percent

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Response to dlwickham (Reply #1)

Wed Dec 20, 2017, 09:59 PM

4. Regarding the Strong Trump State Democratic US Senators up for re-election in 2018.

I expect Manchin-WV,Heitkamp-ND,and Tester-MT to win re-election by a double digit margin. Country is more polarizing now than it was 10 to 15 years ago for these US Senators to win by a landslide margin like Byrd and Rockefeller-WV, Conrad and Dorgan-ND, and Baucus-MT.
I expect McCaskill-MO and Donnelly-IN to win re-election by a narrow to high single digit margin.

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Response to nkpolitics1212 (Original post)

Wed Dec 20, 2017, 09:55 PM

2. Tester has a + 16 approval rating.

He has weak competition.

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Response to nkpolitics1212 (Original post)

Wed Dec 20, 2017, 09:56 PM

3. Out here

in Montana it's anybody's guess. Tester has at least one D opponent and several Rs are running for his seat. I'm suspecting Gianforte isn't going to get re-elected but I could be wrong. Zinke is a gaslight in the state and truly divisive, not that Daines isn't.

The state is in a budget crisis that just got worse today. There isn't really much of a social safety net here other than the federal programs and those are either on hold or getting cut to some degree as well. I've been homeless for seven months and jobless for 14, it's pretty rough when you're north of the 45th parallel, bare bones social setting.

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