Ranking the US Senate Races the Democrats will win in 2022 based on candidate quality.
CA(Padilla-D vs Meuser-R)
NY(Schumer-D vs Pinion-R)
HI(Schatz-D vs McDermott-R)
MD(Van Hollen-D vs Chaffee-R)
OR(Wyden-D vs Rae Perkins-R)
VT(Welch-D vs Nolan-R)
IL(Duckworth-D vs Hubbard-R)
CT(Blumenthal-D vs Klarides-R)
WA(Murray-D vs Smiley-R)
CO(Bennet-D vs O’Dea/Hanks-R)
PA(Fetterman-D vs Oz-R)
AZ(Kelly-D vs Masters-R)
NH(Hassan-D vs Bolduc-R)
NV(Cortez Masto-D vs Laxalt-R)
GA(Warnock-D vs Walker-R) Warnock’s 2022 margin of victory will be similar to his 2020 margin of victory.
WI(Barnes-D vs Johnson-R) Barnes benefits from Governor Tony Evers coattails.
NC(Beasley-D vs Budd-R) Budd and Beasley are generic candidates. NC is a Trump state but his margin of victory from 2016 to 2020 has decreased.
OH(Ryan-D vs Vance-R) Ryan is a stronger candidate than Vance but OH is a Trump state. Looking at Sherrod Brown’s US Senate Races. Brown won his 1st US Senate Race in 2006 against Governor Mike DeWine who was then a fairly popular US Senator by a 12 percent margin. Brown’s margin of victory in 2012 and 2018 was at 6 percent.
