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grantcart

(53,061 posts)
Sat Jul 21, 2012, 09:17 PM Jul 2012

Florida numbers

Its too early to get too interested in poll numbers, and the national numbers are completely without importance. The only national numbers that have any significance are not the national tracking numbers but the negative numbers. This is because negative numbers tend to only go up and rarely down. It often comes down not only negative but how negative. No candidate in modern history has entered the race with higher negatives than Romney.

This is where the President has a huge advantage, and why professional Republican campaign staff, like Rove, are so pessimistic about future prospects. The problem for the Republicans is that having been on the stage for the last 5 years the President's negative numbers, like most incumbents, are not going to go up. The reason for this is fairly obvious. Those that are going to vote against the President because he is Black, for example, came to that conclusion years ago. There are no new voters who are all of a sudden going to discover that the President is Black. And the same is true for issues like supporting Gay marriage or health care reform. Those that are against him are already against him.

For Romney however the problem is that the more he campaigns the more people don't like him. For a normal candidate this would be true but for Romney it is doubly so. In Iowa, for example, the longer he was there the lower the numbers.

Florida is, surprisingly typical. Currently the President is showing about 48% approval. People like Andrea Mitchell grasp this as a very low number, showing her ignorance. Of the 52% indicating some disapproval there is a significant number of people who don't approve of his record because he HASN'T BEEN LIBERAL ENOUGH and Romney isn't going to get any of those.

Romney trails by 5 points entering at 43%. Here is Romney's dilemma; if he goes to Florida to try and improve the numbers, they will go down.

Romney has only one possible chance and that is to drive the President's negatives lower than his. That is why Limbaugh is suggesting to go back 3 decades and talk about adolescent marijuana smoking.

Here is SurveyUSA's latest numbers


http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=e4e06e26-835c-4f08-8c04-24a8c4975bc3

In an election for President of the United States in the pivotal state of Florida today, 07/20/12, three months till early voting begins, Barack Obama defeats Mitt Romney 48% to 43%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WFLA-TV in Tampa. In one school of thought, Mitt Romney cannot capture the White House without Florida's 29 electoral votes.

There is no gender gap in Florida, unlike many other states, but there is a material age gap and race gap: Romney leads by 4 points among voters age 50+; Obama leads by 14 points among voters age 18 to 49. Romney leads 5:4 among white voters, Obama leads 10:1 among black voters.

3 key groups propel Obama today: Hispanics break 5:4 Democrat. Moderates break 2:1 Democrat. Independents break 4:3 Democrat. Obama leads among voters who earn less than $40,000 a year; Romney leads among voters who earn more than $80,000 a year. Those Floridians voting for Mitt Romney 3:1 prefer Marco Rubio to be Romney's running mate over Condoleezza Rice.



It gets worse for Romney. The same polls show for the Senate that the numbers are reversed the Republican leads by 6 points, indicating that the electorate has moved beyond party and is already deciding who they like and who they don't.

And it gets even worse. The sample shows that there are clear generational splits, more significant than splits among the sexes and Romney is not likely to improve with the younger voters.

And then it gets a little bit worse. The sample may have over sampled Republicans slightly.

Now it really gets bad for Romney. The President has many electoral college paths to the WhiteHouse. Some go through Florida and others do not.

Romney has a couple of different paths and they all go through Florida. Without Florida Romney would have to flip another 2008 Obama state, like Michigan and that's not likely to happen.

Romney might have a chance in Florida if Jeb Bush were to get fully engaged but he seems to be having a good time looking forward to 2016,

Hannity and others are aware of this and they are near tears that Romney seems to have passed over Rubio;


Fox News’ Sean Hannity sounds beside himself. Reuters seems pretty sure. Same with NBC Nightly News.

They all appear to believe that Florida Sen. Marco Rubio isn’t at the top of the unofficial shortlist to be Mitt Romney’s vice presidential. That is, Rubio isn’t on the shorter list of running mates.

"Why do I keep hearing they’re not going to pick Rubio?" Hannity asked with some sense of frustration Monday night on his show. "I want Rubio ... with everybody else."

Well, not quite.

. . .


"We need Florida. We can’t win without Florida," conservative Noelle Nikpour chimed in agreement with Thomas and Hannity on Monday. "We’ve gotta have Florida. And that’s Rubio."

Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/07/17/2899884/bye-bye-marco-rubio-in-romney.html#storylink=cpy




What other indicators that things are looking good for the President in Florida? The President was in Florida yesterday when the news from Colorado stopped active campaigning. He would only be there at this time if the internals were showing traction, especially on social security hot button points.

Don't get sidetracked by the irrelevant national tracking polls and keep your eye on Florida. Its not a 'must have' for us, but without it Romney is going to get creamed.
5 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Florida numbers (Original Post) grantcart Jul 2012 OP
Thanks, grantcart. MarianJack Jul 2012 #1
K&R patrice Jul 2012 #2
"... hispanics break 5:4..." my ass. Did they ONLY interview older, Castro era Cubans? DCKit Jul 2012 #3
Actually this is very significant. grantcart Jul 2012 #4
thanks man demguy_5692 Jul 2012 #5
 

DCKit

(18,541 posts)
3. "... hispanics break 5:4..." my ass. Did they ONLY interview older, Castro era Cubans?
Sun Jul 22, 2012, 03:53 AM
Jul 2012

The Republics have <17% of the Hispanic vote, and that, in itself, is inexplicable. Unless 17% are older, thoroughly indoctrinated Cubans.

Sorry, it's a sore point with me. I know lots of hispanic and black folks, none of whom would ever vote (R), and I know a lie when I see one.

grantcart

(53,061 posts)
4. Actually this is very significant.
Sun Jul 22, 2012, 12:26 PM
Jul 2012

Non Hispanics tend to view Hispanics as a single group the same way that most Americans view African Americans as a single group (did you ever meet a Black CaribeanAmerican ?)

The fact is that there are 3 main basic groups of Hispanics, from 3 different migrations;

1) Cubans
2) Puerto Ricans
3) Mexicans and other Central/South American countries.


Speaking in broad generalities, the first two groups tend to be much more conservative politically than the third (which is by far the largest).

Cuban Americans do not face any migration challenges and frankly look down on other Hispanic groups, and other Hispanic groups resent Cuban Americans special immigration rights and their lack of concern for illegals. Cuban Americans have also embraced the fanatical anticommunism of the far right.

Many Puerto Ricans hold to very conservative religious traditions of the island.

For that reason it is not unreasonable to assume that these numbers are correct.

For the same reason Rubio doesn't help the Republicans outside of Florida and outside of the Cuban community.

Ironically because many of those folks in Florida are so rigid politically, adding Rubio to the ticket doesn't actually make much of a difference.
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