2018 US Senate Election Prediction based on which political party has an excellent night.
Tossup US Senate Races are in AZ,FL,IN,MO and NV,
Republicans are favored to win MS regular,MS special,NE,ND,TN,TX,UT,and WY- 50
Democrats are favored to win CA,CT,DE,HI,ME,MD,MA,MI,MN regular,MN special,MT,NJ,NM,NY,OH,PA,RI,VT,VA,WA,WV,and WI- 45
If Republicans have an excellent night- 55R 45D
If Democrats have an excellent night- 50D 50R
How Democrats regain control of the US Senate in 2020 if they hold 45 seats during the 2020 election?
AL is the only Democratic held US Senate seat up in 2020 that has a greater than 50 percent chance of flipping.
NH is a Tossup if Sununu-R runs or Shaheen-D retires and Sununu-R or Ayotte-R runs.
The other Democratic held seats up in 2020- DE,IL,MA,MI,MN,NJ,NM,OR,RI,and VA will remain in the Democratic column.
Democrats need to win 8 Republican held US Senate seats up in 2020.
1)AZ special- Sinema-D vs Ward-R or another more right-wing Republican nominee.
2)CO
3)IA- Vilsack-D or Loebsack-D have to be the Democratic nominee.
4)LA- either Landrieu-D is the Democratic nominee and Democrats need to win in the December Runnoff.
5)ME- Collins-R retires or loses in the primary or gets Chaffeed.
6)MT- if Bullock-D or Schweitzer-D runs.
7)NC
8)KS and/or OK- Roberts(R-KS) or Inhofe(R-OK) retires and Sebelius(D-KS) and/or Henry(D-OK) runs.
