STATE OF THE PRIMARY - April 14, 2016

[Chichiri]

54 Days to California, 5 Days to New York.

Delegate Count

Pledged Delegates: Clinton 1,307, Sanders 1,097 (Clinton +210).
Total Delegates: Clinton 1,776, Sanders 1,127 (Clinton +648).
2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 719 pledged delegates, 43.7% of remaining.
Sanders needs 929 pledged delegates, 56.4% of remaining.


Latest Results

Wyoming: Sanders 7, Clinton 7 (tie).
Versus 3/30 Targets: Sanders 7/11 (-4), Clinton 7/3 (+4).
Versus Adjusted Targets: N/A


Next Primary: April 19

New York: 247 delegates.
3/30 Targets: Sanders 128, Clinton 119.
Adjusted Targets: Sanders 130, Clinton 117.



Comments
This Democratic primary has been a pollster's worst nightmare. Michigan is the most obvious example, but take also states like South Carolina, where the polls predicted an easy Hillary win, but failed to predict the utter and complete blowout she achieved.

I've been looking over the polling aggregates for states that have already voted, and it seems to me the problem is that, with respect to states that they got wrong, pollsters can't seem to pin down a working model; this is evidenced by the fact that, in states that were wrong, the polls tended to be all over the place. In the days before Michigan, for instance, the polls ranged from Clinton +11 to Clinton +37. In South Carolina, they ranged from Clinton +11 to Clinton +50 (and +50 is in fact what she achieved). In Oklahoma, they ranged from Clinton +16 to Sanders +5. And so on.

Weeks have passed, states (and territories) from every geographical and demographical region have voted, and the big pollsters have been burning the midnight oil trying to get their models correct. No one will bet the farm that they have it right, of course, but I for one feel safe dipping my feet into the waters of prognostication once again.

In New York there have been ten polls over the past couple weeks, and they range from Clinton +10 to Clinton +18. That's very narrow compared to the above states. Moreover, any pro-Sanders "insurgency effect" will be offset by the exclusion of independents from the closed primary. (Frankly, the New York closed primary rules do need some revision; Trump's own kids can't vote for him, not having registered in time! But for now, they do work against the low-information Sanders voter.)

The average of all these polls is Clinton +12.9. If that holds, Hillary will take about 140 delegates, bringing her magic number to 41.4% of remaining votes. If we take the low end of the range, Clinton +10, she gets 136 delegates and her magic number is 41.6%. For more pessimistic outcomes, see my April 10 SotP. For more optimistic outcomes, consult a more optimistic numbers wonk.

Whatever happens on Tuesday, however, Sanders will have only 1,400 delegates remaining to catch up to Hillary.


How This Works
Unless otherwise indicated, all information is taken from FiveThirtyEight except the superdelegate count, which is taken from Associated Press. Superdelegates have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates, but may change their mind before the convention. The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination. Adjusted targets further indicate how many delegates are needed to make up the deficit, if any, left by previous contests.


Pun Of The Day
I wanted to teach chemistry, but after periodic doubts I decided I was out of my element!

[IamMab]

1. IIRC, the one correct poll ahead of SC came from an in-state college.

It seemed really odd before, and then was amazingly accurate after. Maybe that should be the model...

[Surya Gayatri]

2. K & R. Thanks for posting.

[livetohike]

3. Still looking good. Thanks for posting.