STATE OF THE PRIMARY - April 15, 2016

[Chichiri]

53 Days to California, 4 Days to New York.


Delegate Count

Pledged Delegates: Clinton 1,307, Sanders 1,097 (Clinton +210).
Total Delegates: Clinton 1,776, Sanders 1,127 (Clinton +648).
2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 719 pledged delegates, 43.7% of remaining.
Sanders needs 929 pledged delegates, 56.4% of remaining.


Latest Results

Wyoming: Sanders 7, Clinton 7 (tie).
Versus 3/30 Targets: Sanders 7/11 (-4), Clinton 7/3 (+4).
Versus Adjusted Targets: N/A


Next Primary: April 19

New York: 247 delegates.
3/30 Targets: Sanders 128, Clinton 119.
Adjusted Targets: Sanders 130, Clinton 117.



Comments
I've been looking at betting exchanges again this year. In 2012 I looked steadily at InTrade, which is now defunct; this year I'm looking at BetFair, which works differently; rather than percentage chance to win, it simply gives decimal odds.

Right now, the back/lay for Hillary to win is 1.10/1.11. That means if you want to bet a dollar that Hillary will win the nomination, the most any anti-Hillary person will give you is $1.10. And if you want to bet against Hillary winning, the least amount any pro-Hillary person will accept for their dollar if she wins is $1.11.

If you offer a higher amount, such as 5 bucks, the pro-Hillary crowd will snatch it up; they'll gladly take a 4-buck profit. If you offer less, such as $1.05, the pro-Hillary crowd will still take it -- but not while someone else is offering $1.10.

Meanwhile, the back/lay for Sanders is 10/12.5. You bet a dollar on Sanders winning the nomination, you get 10 if he wins. You bet against him and he wins, you lose $12.50.

Another way of looking at it is the standard ___-to-one format. The odds against Sanders are ten to one. The odds against Hillary are a scant 1.1 to one.

Yet another way to look at it is implied percentage, which can be obtained simply by taking the reciprocal of the decimal. One over 1.1 is 0.91, which means Hillary's implied chance of winning is 91%. One over ten, of course, is 10%; that's Sanders' chance of winning.

(By the way, I know a lot of people are looking at PredictWise, but since the formula for that site is still pretty new, I prefer to look at straight betting. Prognostication is one of the few things the free market is really, really good at.)

TL;DR: The closer to one, the better. Hillary's at 1.1, Sanders is at 10.


How This Works
Unless otherwise indicated, all information is taken from FiveThirtyEight except the superdelegate count, which is taken from Associated Press. Superdelegates have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates, but may change their mind before the convention. The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination. Adjusted targets further indicate how many delegates are needed to make up the deficit, if any, left by previous contests.


Pun Of The Day
The article on Japanese sword fighters is quite lengthy, but I can samurais it for you!


.

[IamMab]

1. Do you offer subscription service? Because this is better than other news I get for free!

By which I mean, I feel like I should be sending you money for it.

Thanks very much for these, I personally find them immensely informative.

[Chichiri]

2. Hard to say no to money, but I have nothing set up.

Perhaps I will for the general election. :-D