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Wed Jun 24, 2015, 03:39 PM

 

Which recently red states will HRC win?

I've been thinking, once Hillary is the nominee, I feel like she has an appeal that might cause her to be surprisingly competive in states that have been red for a very long time. As a baseline, I think she will win all of the Kerry 2004 states..regarding other states..

WV and Kentucky - These states are still democratic at the state level and WV particularly used to be a very reliable blue state. I think Kerry was seen as too liberal and anticoal and Obama's issue was race...but these states love the Clintons. Could Hillary flip them?

Arkansas - home state advantage?

Texas - strong Hispanic showing + historically more supportive of women (had a female gov, Ann Richards)

Virginia - Obama won, and I feel Hillary should do just as well as him if not better since she won't have race holding her back in the rural areas or areas bordering WV.

Thoughts?

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Arrow 11 replies Author Time Post
Reply Which recently red states will HRC win? (Original post)
CheshireDog Jun 2015 OP
leftofcool Jun 2015 #1
CheshireDog Jun 2015 #5
OKNancy Jun 2015 #2
Iliyah Jun 2015 #3
Thinkingabout Jun 2015 #6
okasha Jun 2015 #7
darkwing Jun 2015 #11
HappyinLA Jun 2015 #4
shenmue Jun 2015 #9
shenmue Jun 2015 #8
hrmjustin Jun 2015 #10

Response to CheshireDog (Original post)

Wed Jun 24, 2015, 03:43 PM

1. Bill Clinton won Kentucky and I think Hillary may as well.

She beat Obama in Kentucky and as far as I can tell, she is well liked here even in some really red counties. There are more registered Democrats in Kentucky than Republicans.

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Response to leftofcool (Reply #1)

Wed Jun 24, 2015, 04:06 PM

5. Agreed..and WV is similar..

 

Not only is WV similar to Kentucky, but the state is much more democratic at the state level. I mean, WV was even one of the SIX states that voted against Reagan in the 1980 election.

I feel like the "Clinton Democrat" is more in line with WV then recent ones have been. It's not a ton of electoral votes but it would certainly put the republicans on the defensive.

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Response to CheshireDog (Original post)

Wed Jun 24, 2015, 03:49 PM

2. Possible

All of Obama's 2008 states.. which would be an easy win.
Maybe Arizona
I think it's a reach but I'll add Missouri, West Virginia, Kentucky and Arkansas

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Response to CheshireDog (Original post)

Wed Jun 24, 2015, 03:57 PM

3. In the general I point towards Texas.

If HRC wins Texas, the party is over.

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Response to Iliyah (Reply #3)

Wed Jun 24, 2015, 05:06 PM

6. It would be wonderful to win Texas to go for Hillary in the general. it will be a tough hill to

climb. I will be working for her.

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Response to Iliyah (Reply #3)

Wed Jun 24, 2015, 06:28 PM

7. I agree with this.

There is very, very strong Hispanic and African American support for Hillary here. At least some Republican women will quietly go over the wall for her.

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Response to okasha (Reply #7)

Sat Jun 27, 2015, 08:25 PM

11. The real problem in Texas is voter turnout.

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Response to CheshireDog (Original post)

Wed Jun 24, 2015, 03:57 PM

4. Looking at some 2012 results

I have to say she stands a very good chance of picking up Arizona, Missouri, North Carolina and, it'll be a hell of a fight, Georgia.

I see the Republicans having to spend a lot of time, money and effort working to keep red states from flipping and they'll never get the chance to try to turn blue states red. No way they campaign to everyone, they'll pick their best combo of state that could squeak them to 270, and spend all their time there. Which will work for about 10 minutes, because Hillary will be flipping reds and they'll have to play defense and then it's over for them.

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Response to HappyinLA (Reply #4)

Wed Jun 24, 2015, 06:36 PM

9. Yeah!

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Response to CheshireDog (Original post)

Wed Jun 24, 2015, 06:35 PM

8. West Virginia, possibly Virginia and Texas



She'll do well and surprise a lot of people.

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Response to CheshireDog (Original post)

Wed Jun 24, 2015, 06:51 PM

10. KY, WV, MO, AZ, IN, and MT.

 

Maybe Texas.

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