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Sun May 8, 2016, 09:53 AM


In the context of a "contested convention": Sanders's best case scenario moving into Philadelphia

The pollsters have pretty much packed it in for the Democratic primaries because the outcome is apparent to everyone (even those feigning denial). Bernie and some of his die-hard fans are trying to convince us that he will be arriving at the Democratic National Convention with enough delegates to create a contested convention. His logic (sic) is that the superdelegates don't count, except in the denominator when caculating % pledged delegates.

Anyway, let's take a glance at what his delegate numbers might look like as he arrives in Philly under the very best circumstances. Here are the ground rules:
  • Bernie wins every open primary/causus by 82/18: Puerto Rico, Montana, North Dakota
  • Bernie wins every closed primary/caucus by 65/35: Kentucky, Oregon, Virgin Islands, New Mexico, South Dakota
  • West Virginia: The scant number of polls have Sanders up by 4%. We'll give him a blowout: 65/35.
  • California: Polls indicate HRC leads by 9%. We'll assume Bernie flips CA and wins by 9%
  • New Jersey: Polls have HRC ahead by 20%. We'll assume Bernie turns NJ around and wins 52/48
  • District of Columbia: Bernie loses this one 75/25

Under these highly extreme circumstances, Bernie arrives at the Democratic National Convention trailing Clinton by 290 delegates.

No contest.

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