The pollsters have pretty much packed it in for the Democratic primaries because the outcome is apparent to everyone (even those feigning denial). Bernie and some of his die-hard fans are trying to convince us that he will be arriving at the Democratic National Convention with enough delegates to create a contested convention. His logic (sic) is that the superdelegates don't count, except in the denominator when caculating % pledged delegates.
Anyway, let's take a glance at what his delegate numbers might look like as he arrives in Philly under the very best circumstances. Here are the ground rules:
- Bernie wins every open primary/causus by 82/18: Puerto Rico, Montana, North Dakota
- Bernie wins every closed primary/caucus by 65/35: Kentucky, Oregon, Virgin Islands, New Mexico, South Dakota
- West Virginia: The scant number of polls have Sanders up by 4%. We'll give him a blowout: 65/35.
- California: Polls indicate HRC leads by 9%. We'll assume Bernie flips CA and wins by 9%
- New Jersey: Polls have HRC ahead by 20%. We'll assume Bernie turns NJ around and wins 52/48
- District of Columbia: Bernie loses this one 75/25
Under these highly extreme circumstances, Bernie arrives at the Democratic National Convention trailing Clinton by 290 delegates.
No contest.
