Hillary Clinton

Chichiri

(4,667 posts) Fri May 13, 2016, 09:30 AM May 2016

STATE OF THE ELECTION - May 13, 2016

179 Days to Election Day

Here's where we start:

Solid colored states are 4-0 in the last four elections. Light colored states are 3-1. Gray states are 2-2. (It is worth noting that most of the gray states were, in chronological order, red-red-blue-blue.)

Assuming Hillary takes all solid blue states, she is 28 electoral votes short of victory. Possible routes to that number include:

* Ohio and Virginia.
* Ohio, Colorado, and New Hampshire.
* Ohio, Colorado, and Nevada.
* Ohio, Nevada, and New Mexico.
* Ohio, Nevada, and New Hampshire.
* Virginia, Colorado, and Nevada.
* Virginia, Nevada, New Mexico, and New Hampshire.
* Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico.
* Florida.

It will be a while before we start to see reliable matchup polls and overall forecasts. For one thing, while both parties now have a presumptive nominee, the primaries are still technically underway. For another, quite a bit could happen in the next 179 days. (One of the nominees could be struck by lightning. Or the Indictment Fairy could grant the wildest dreams of the few remaining Sanders hopefuls and cause legal trouble for Hillary. Or Trump could open his mouth and say something.)

So for the next few months, at least, these updates will be sporadic, sparse, and speculative. But we're now at the point where we can track the 2016 general election, and as the Clinton campaign has turned its main focus on that battle, so should we all.

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