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Fri May 13, 2016, 09:30 AM

STATE OF THE ELECTION - May 13, 2016

179 Days to Election Day

Here's where we start:



Solid colored states are 4-0 in the last four elections. Light colored states are 3-1. Gray states are 2-2. (It is worth noting that most of the gray states were, in chronological order, red-red-blue-blue.)

Assuming Hillary takes all solid blue states, she is 28 electoral votes short of victory. Possible routes to that number include:


* Ohio and Virginia.
* Ohio, Colorado, and New Hampshire.
* Ohio, Colorado, and Nevada.
* Ohio, Nevada, and New Mexico.
* Ohio, Nevada, and New Hampshire.
* Virginia, Colorado, and Nevada.
* Virginia, Nevada, New Mexico, and New Hampshire.
* Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico.
* Florida.


It will be a while before we start to see reliable matchup polls and overall forecasts. For one thing, while both parties now have a presumptive nominee, the primaries are still technically underway. For another, quite a bit could happen in the next 179 days. (One of the nominees could be struck by lightning. Or the Indictment Fairy could grant the wildest dreams of the few remaining Sanders hopefuls and cause legal trouble for Hillary. Or Trump could open his mouth and say something.)

So for the next few months, at least, these updates will be sporadic, sparse, and speculative. But we're now at the point where we can track the 2016 general election, and as the Clinton campaign has turned its main focus on that battle, so should we all.


Riddle of the Day
I ask no questions, but I demand answers. What am I?

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Reply STATE OF THE ELECTION - May 13, 2016 (Original post)
Chichiri May 2016 OP
SharonClark May 2016 #1
kstewart33 May 2016 #2
Chichiri May 2016 #3
BootinUp May 2016 #4
yallerdawg May 2016 #5
IamMab May 2016 #6
Chichiri May 2016 #7

Response to Chichiri (Original post)

Fri May 13, 2016, 09:33 AM

1. There are rumors in Iowa that Trump may select Joanie (bread bags) Ernst as Veep

I have no a clue what that would do to Iowa's 6 lonely EC votes. Iowa went with Obama both times.

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Response to SharonClark (Reply #1)

Fri May 13, 2016, 10:17 AM

2. Hope he picks her.

I think she'd be easy pickings in the general campaign.

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Response to SharonClark (Reply #1)

Fri May 13, 2016, 10:43 AM

3. Never heard of her. nt

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Response to Chichiri (Original post)

Fri May 13, 2016, 10:50 AM

4. I wanna resist betting on Florida, but its soooooooo tempting. nt

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Response to Chichiri (Original post)

Fri May 13, 2016, 10:59 AM

5. Saw an Indictment Fairy?

Or hoax? You be the judge!

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Response to Chichiri (Original post)

Fri May 13, 2016, 01:18 PM

6. A telephone.

 

That's my guess without googling.

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Response to IamMab (Reply #6)

Fri May 13, 2016, 01:20 PM

7. Correct! nt

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