*Hillary Group* That New Hampshire Poll...

[yallerdawg]

Despite unrelenting negative media attack, Hillary remains the Democratic nominee of choice even for those who may cast a primary vote for Senator Sanders (I-VT) in his own backyard.

Title: Bernie Sanders Rises in Democratic Presidential Race in New Hampshire

By: R. Kelly Myers, Marlin Fitzwater Fellow, Franklin Pierce University

Portsmouth, NH. – Bernie Sanders shows strong gains in favorability and overtakes Hillary
Clinton in vote choice. Still, approximately two-thirds (65%) of voters believe Hillary Clinton will
win the Democratic Party’s nomination, compared to just 11 percent who think Sanders will win.

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has a very high favorable rating of 80 percent, followed closely by Vice President Joe Biden (79%) and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders (76%).

Despite no longer leading in terms of vote choice, Hillary Clinton is still widely considered to be the likely nominee. Almost two-thirds of likely Democratic primary voters believe that Hillary
Clinton (65%) will win the presidential nomination of the Democratic Party, followed by Bernie
Sanders (11%) and Joe Biden (7%). Only 17 percent of voters are unsure who will be the
eventual nominee of the Party.

[Thinkingabout]

1. Since the winner in NH has not gone on to win the nomination, the state to look to is NC, they have

performed very well in determining the nominee in the past. So a loss for Hillary in NH but a win in NC would determine who the nominee is.

[yallerdawg]

3. I'm not writing off New Hampshire, either.

Despite what people 'say,' do they really take the bother to vote for someone who will not win? This poll indicates these voters think Hillary will win by a landslide!

[still_one]

6. That may be, but I think what the OP is talking about is the details of the poll are not as straight

forward as Bernie is ahead of Hillary. Here are some of the interesting take aways from that poll that are conveniently not mentioned:

1. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has a very high favorable rating of 80 percent, followed closely by Vice President Joe Biden (79%) and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders (76%).

2. When general impressions of the candidates are further broken down to look at the strength of voters’ views, it is noteworthy that more than one-half of likely Democratic primary voters have a very favorable view toward Bernie Sanders (54%), while most of Clinton’s and Biden’s favorability is less enthusiastic (i.e., more somewhat favorable views than very favorable views).

However, the most interesting point the poll explores is how much conviction do those polled feel toward their candidate:

3. Voters were asked if they have made a firm choice in the race, or whether they could change their mind between now and the time of the election. As expected, most voters indicate that they could change their mind (60%) while 40 percent of respondents report that they have made a firm choice. These results suggest that most voters remain open to the possibility of changing their mind.
These results are consistent with the amount of attention that Democratic voters are giving the 2016 presidential election at this time. Only 33 percent of likely Democratic primary voters are following the presidential election very closely, while the vast majority are following the election only somewhat (48%) or not that closely (19%).

The poll indicates that most of those polled believe that Hillary will be the eventually nominee:

4. Despite no longer leading in terms of vote choice, Hillary Clinton is still widely considered to be the likely nominee. Almost two-thirds of likely Democratic primary voters believe that Hillary Clinton (65%) will win the presidential nomination of the Democratic Party, followed by Bernie Sanders (11%) and Joe Biden (7%). Only 17 percent of voters are unsure who will be the eventual nominee of the Party.

http://www.bostonherald.com/sites/default/files/media/2015/08/12/FPU-BH-0811-Dem.pdf

One big gripe I have with this poll is that they include Biden. Biden is NOT a declared candidate, and despite what some believe on DU there is no indication that he will be. If Biden comes out and indicates he will be running, then include him in the poll. By including him in the poll, the message being given to the people being polled is "he is an actual candidate", and that is not accurate, and I believe distorts the poll.

The only way to confirm this poll is to see if it correlates with other pollsters, in the several days.

[Thinkingabout]

11. Mostly I posted to remind those who thinks Bernie is going to be

Coronated because he is ahead of Hillary in NH dies not mean he will get the nomination.

[still_one]

12. I understand, thanks

[cosmicone]

2. In the meanwhile, the minions were passing out

from relentless orgasms over a poll result that was within the margin of error.

Notwithstanding the fact that a similar poll showed her 15 points behind in 2008 and she still won NH.

[Tommy2Tone]

8. You mean when "Harry Met Sally" type of orgasm?

I want what she's having.

Great point and framed perfectly.

[Iliyah]

4. Acutally I think HRC will win NH and for sure Iowa

Nevertheless, HRC right now has the odds in her favor. Thanks for the information.

[Starry Messenger]

5. That poll had Biden on it.

I assume come to voting time, if he isn't running, most of those numbers would go to HRC.

[still_one]

7. and I have a problem with that. It distorts the poll. Only if and until Biden actually runs, he

should NOT be included in that poll. It distorts it, and gives the impression to the people being polled that Biden is an actual candidate, and he isn't at this point in time. If the pollster feels that strong about including Biden, then they should have all possibilities. One with Biden included, and one with Biden NOT included. That would provide a much more accurate picture.

[yallerdawg]

9. Why BS is 'winning' and Biden is included in this poll?

to SonderWoman who dug into the why and how of the poll.

When you really, really like your candidate, healthy skepticism is the first casualty?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251512894#post10

[BooScout]

10. Thanks for pointing this out...

Not only is the poll an outlier....it is now extremely suspect.

[yallerdawg]

13. Yes, what a dream for Hillary's opposition.

Pump up BS and Biden in one poll?

That's covering all the bases! Without blowing your cover.

[riversedge]

14. I had to chuckle when I saw this thread --the Boston

Herald was shown with the headline of Bernie overtaking Hillary:
KABOOM!!! Front page today's Boston Herald [View all]


From my experience the Herald is a RW newspaper--and the RW wants Bernie to win. I wonder if any of them gets that point??



http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1280&pid=36654