my analysis for general election and democratic victories

[beachbum bob]

I am no expert but I have watched over 40 years of politics and elections. The following is my own opinion based on what I have seen and learned..

1....Koch Bros monies NOT going to Trump but to the libertarian candidate Johnson...millions and millions...
2.....RNC fundraising has been near NON EXISTENT since trump secured the nomination, the big GOP money is sitting put as they know it will be just thrown away on trump
3....trump is 40 million in debt to himself and now seeking bailout from RNC....unlikely as RNC DOES NOT FUND primary candidates campaigns....
4. the likely hood of $1 billion superpac monies available for trump (like there was for romney) aint happening
5....the likely trump voter and supporter has better things to spend their money on like beer and ammo....

and of course we trump himself...who has declared war on the media and the journalists....pretty dumb tactic when YOU need them more than they need you..Trump can't and won't keep his mouth shut....and he CAN'T be managed....


THE only way trump could win would be for massive and I mean massive numbers of democrats not voting and that is pretty much impossible...as everything that comes out of trumps mouth spurs all democrats to come out to vote. I'm not including the sanders effect yet...as I hold out hope he does possess some honor and will be supportive of our nominee...and the great majority of his followers will too....the dynamics of the primary always bring a lot of passion into play but we do get our act together


the likely scenario is hillary wins with between 350 and 400 electoral votes, the conservatives lose congress back to the Democrats....unprecedented numbers of women, hispanics as well as all other minorities vote overwhelmingly for hillary...Gary Johnson takes between 6-8% of the vote with 90% coming from those who might have voted for any other conservative candidate.....several red states move into the purple world...states like Texas, Georgia, South Carolina...hillary could actually win those if Johnson picks up votes in the upper 8%+ range....

[MFM008]

1. Love the sound of it.

[beachbum bob]

2. those are the current metrics

still need the GOTV in a huge way to make it happen

[Cha]

3. Interesttng analysis, bob.. you might find this interesting, too..

Don't have a link but someone I trust reported this was on msnbc last night..

"72% of Sanders supporters will vote for Hillary. 2008: 60% of Hillary voters would vote for Obama."

'Course this is right now.. things will probably change like they do.. it could be more it could be less.

Kind of surprised it's that high the way BS goes on about what all Hillary needs to do to get his fans to vote for her.. it's not his job.

And, we'll have Hillary's Coalition and President Obama's ..

Mahalo~

[beachbum bob]

4. 2008 was an ugly primary

I wouldn't participate in DU in 2008 but was all over PCF...and the 2008 Hillary supporters hated obama...they viewed him as a usurper and stole the nomination....I was a bigtime obama supporter from his early days in Illinois senate and we have a friend who is on his staff in DC since his Illinois senate days. But the 2008 hillary supporters spoke the same way...never vote for obama...but I never believed it and I always believed that hillary and bill would do all they could to get obama elected...and they did and hillary's supporters did

this 2016 primary is different....sanders HAS NEVER been a team player and I have no illusions that sanders cares more about himself and a microphone than the wellbeing of our country...his tact has been exactly opposite of hillary's in 2008 after it was apparent that obama had won....sanders is doing scorched earth on hillary AND democrats in general.....

this has worn the democratic base tired, the democratic big players tired...and revealing sanders for what he is and he aint pretty....I do feel that well over 80% of his followers will vote Hillary...the other 20% are most likely the extreme left leftists and anarchist that bernie attracts and they could actually care less about the well being of our country,....as they would rejoice if our system would cave in...


the funny thing, had sanders become gracious a month ago and stopped all the attacks and all the fanning the flame....he would be viewed upon much more positively by almost all of us and elevated to a much higher level of respect AND statesmanship ....but I believe one of his major character FLAWS is in his overriding need to be disliked and be an outsider and NOT be a team player. I believe he is the happiest when he is the most angry and that is fueled by his ego that is fed by the REJECTION.....that makes fight harder no matter what is destroyed

no doubt america has avoid a bullet by insuring this guy WILL NEVER be president, now we have to insure trump will never president either

[Cha]

5. lol@.. "that sanders cares more about himself and a microphone than the wellbeing of our country..."

Warning: Do NOT get between BS and a mic!

burnie cares more about burning bridges than he does about our Planet. He's not a big picture kinda person. No vision other than where his next rock star rally is going to be held.

That's my perception and I agree with everything you wrote.. same exact page.

Thank you.

[beachbum bob]

6. I have watched sanders for decades and there are many things I agree with him on

but I also know his flaws and the flaws disqualify him from being president or a leader of anything


sanders care more about the microphone than any thing else...and now his ego is out of control

[Cha]

7. Obviously adores the

sound of his own voice. yech.

[beachbum bob]

8. he is ego driven and an attention hound

....never has played nice with others...and is proud of that

[Cha]

9. Yeah, he should be so proud.. it bumped him right out of

ever getting to first place in the Dem primary.