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kstewart33

(6,551 posts)
Wed Jun 1, 2016, 08:18 PM Jun 2016

The key question about the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll.

Hillary leads Bernie by 2 points.

However, the key question concerns the early voters.

Among that group, Hillary leads Bernie by 17 points.

Usually, about half of the total electorate votes early in California.

Early voters tend to be older. In the poll, among voters age 45 and older, Hillary leads that group by 30 points.

So what percentage of the total vote will be comprised of the early voters? If it's half of the electorate, Hillary wins.

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The key question about the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll. (Original Post) kstewart33 Jun 2016 OP
Thanks for providing some nuance. annavictorious Jun 2016 #1
From your finger tips to... nt BootinUp Jun 2016 #2
Here's some recent Mail voting activity.. Princess Turandot Jun 2016 #3
Goes back to fake lawsuits jimw81 Jun 2016 #5
The polls are all over the place. TwilightZone Jun 2016 #4
Polls missed one variable jimw81 Jun 2016 #6
 

annavictorious

(934 posts)
1. Thanks for providing some nuance.
Wed Jun 1, 2016, 08:23 PM
Jun 2016

Of course we all want her to win in California, but if she doesn't, I hope that her loss of California is every bit as meaningless as it was in 2008 when Obama lost.

Princess Turandot

(4,784 posts)
3. Here's some recent Mail voting activity..
Wed Jun 1, 2016, 10:05 PM
Jun 2016

Mail voting as a percent of total voting in the primaries is in yellow; the % for the general is in blue. In 2008, the Presidential Primary Election was held separately from other races, which is why that year shows up twice in the primaries.

Note, however, that this is voting by mail in total for each election. It doesn't indicate when those ballots arrived, so it is not the exact equivalent of the numbers from that poll.


from: http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/historical-absentee/

jimw81

(111 posts)
5. Goes back to fake lawsuits
Thu Jun 2, 2016, 07:03 AM
Jun 2016

sanders camp knows that number is going to increase 5-15%. Hillary needs those voters to come out on election day to offset sanders supporters

TwilightZone

(25,394 posts)
4. The polls are all over the place.
Wed Jun 1, 2016, 10:30 PM
Jun 2016

The PPI one had math problems. This one's close. The other two, it's a blowout.

No idea what to expect at this point, though the early voting numbers look good.

jimw81

(111 posts)
6. Polls missed one variable
Thu Jun 2, 2016, 07:06 AM
Jun 2016

asian americans. When hillary did ad buys they were targeted in the asian american/latino communities.

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