Hillary Clinton
Related: About this forumThe key question about the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll.
Hillary leads Bernie by 2 points.
However, the key question concerns the early voters.
Among that group, Hillary leads Bernie by 17 points.
Usually, about half of the total electorate votes early in California.
Early voters tend to be older. In the poll, among voters age 45 and older, Hillary leads that group by 30 points.
So what percentage of the total vote will be comprised of the early voters? If it's half of the electorate, Hillary wins.
annavictorious
(934 posts)Of course we all want her to win in California, but if she doesn't, I hope that her loss of California is every bit as meaningless as it was in 2008 when Obama lost.
BootinUp
(47,011 posts)Princess Turandot
(4,784 posts)Mail voting as a percent of total voting in the primaries is in yellow; the % for the general is in blue. In 2008, the Presidential Primary Election was held separately from other races, which is why that year shows up twice in the primaries.
Note, however, that this is voting by mail in total for each election. It doesn't indicate when those ballots arrived, so it is not the exact equivalent of the numbers from that poll.
from: http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/historical-absentee/
jimw81
(111 posts)sanders camp knows that number is going to increase 5-15%. Hillary needs those voters to come out on election day to offset sanders supporters
TwilightZone
(25,394 posts)The PPI one had math problems. This one's close. The other two, it's a blowout.
No idea what to expect at this point, though the early voting numbers look good.
jimw81
(111 posts)asian americans. When hillary did ad buys they were targeted in the asian american/latino communities.