The Science Behind Bernie Sanders' Failed Movement, Explained

[ehrnst]

Majorities don’t just rule, they influence, even—and maybe especially—local majorities. More recent research has also found that the effect extends to three degrees of social distance. So it is not only those we know well, but the friends of our friend’s friends affect how we think and behave, even for health issues like obesity and smoking.

However, Asch also showed that including one or two dissenters in the group drastically brought down the pressure to conform, which creates an urge to stamp out dissent. This presents a dilemma: Enforcing strict adherence to ideology makes for a more cohesive and passionate movement, but it can also make it hard to achieve anything of significance.

.............................................................................

That’s why the true face of revolution always looks more like The Good Wife than it does Homeland. It is not the passion and fervor of the zealots that create change, but when everyone else joins their cause. When accountants and marketing managers start taking to the streets, you know you have something.

So you can see the delicate balancing act that movements must perform. First, they need to create an environment of local majority similar to those in Asch’s studies in order to preserve ideological continuity. Yet they also must make inroads to those in the mainstream who are more resistant to the idea, if the movement is ever to grow and affect change..

Edited to add: This is "lessons learned from the primaries" post, not a rehashing.



http://www.forbes.com/sites/gregsatell/2016/06/10/the-science-behind-bernie-sanders-failed-movement-explained/

[bravenak]

1. Posted for later comments.

[bravenak]

5. This:

However, I would argue that a much more likely scenario is that we’ll soon be forgetting Bernie Sanders and not because he failed as a politician, but because of how he failed as a leader of his movement, all too often choosing to attack rather than engage. Hopefully, in the years to come, his failure will become a cautionary tale to those who seek to affect change in society.

[BlueMTexpat]

12. I concur. eom

[Cha]

18. So Absolutely True!

[MADem]

25. I would have liked a little more HOPE and CHANGE talk, to be honest.

Yeah, sure, that was Obama's tag line, but a good idea is a good idea.

Doom and gloom and a laundry list of what's wrong never works on me. Heck, you can get enough "Life sucks and then ya die" hanging around that grumbling neighbor or relative who 'can never catch a break!'

[bravenak]

27. Yeah, I found it far too pessimistic

A bit of positivity can go a long way to drawing in voters

[ehrnst]

2. I think that this is critical:

"Enforcing strict adherence to ideology makes for a more cohesive and passionate movement, but it can also make it hard to achieve anything of significance."

"Until your movement is able to attract the support of those who do not immediately agree with you, it’s nothing more than a protest."

Time will tell if Sanders inspired a movement or a protest.

[LuvLoogie]

26. The march on the DNC in Philly will tell. Will it be angry or will it be upbeat?

[DemonGoddess]

3. That's an interesting article

and certainly food for thought.

[Agnosticsherbet]

4. Fascinating article.

[cosmicone]

6. It wasn't that big a movement

It was done with careful crafting.

They focus grouped college students to see which issue will motivate them most and settled on "free tuition." They made that the focal point and started holding rallies near college campuses and used revolution messaging to get followers on social media.

The handful of people pulling for Sanders were enough to win caucuses but not enough to win primaries.

The miscalculation was that the rallies would draw media and the media would draw mainstream democrats. The latter didn't happen. Seasoned voters were suspicious about calling everyone corrupt and about a "revolution." Another miscalculation was that it would be just like 2008.

As he started losing, the teenyboppers turned violent like in Nevada and California and that was the end.

[ehrnst]

7. I didn't know about the campus focus groups.

What is the source for that - I'd be interested in sharing.

[Her Sister]

10. Here: Sanders did polling before running

http://www.democraticunderground.com/110778473

[ehrnst]

20. Thank you. I was looking for something like this. (nt)

[sarae]

23. hah

...yet it seems that we only hear about how calculating Hillary is when she uses focus groups. One standard for everyone else, a different one for her.

[ismnotwasm]

8. Interesting--this is the stuff I've been waiting for, analysis

I actually don't/didn't want The Bernie movement to fail, I want to see move and more people engaged with politics, which is why the CT crowd pisses me off. Why would the newly engaged want to continue to fight if they're told everything had been pre-ordained? By saying stupid shit like "corporate masters" "oligarchs" over and over and over. I asked one young Bernie supporter "how would you go about overturning Citizens United?" "I don't know" she answered. Argh.

I want the Bernie revolution to succeed in the only way it can--by supporting down ticket candidates with progressive agendas, all over the country. I'd get right behind that. I want to see a social justice platform successfully combined with economic justice and diverse activists coming together to change the face of politics for the better.

[Her Sister]

9. Instead of attracting natural allies they bullied and therefore repelled them! FAIL!

And so it seems like Sanders and his followers will remain permanently in the opposition and will be unlikely to ever affect serious change. Until your movement is able to attract the support of those who do not immediately agree with you, it’s nothing more than a protest

.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/gregsatell/2016/06/10/the-science-behind-bernie-sanders-failed-movement-explained/

[BlueMTexpat]

13. +1! eom

[Lucinda]

11. I think of his campaign in terms of the Heath Ledger quote as the Joker

"Do I really look like a guy with a plan? You know what I am? I'm a dog chasing cars. I wouldn't know what to do with one if I caught it!"

They basically did some research into how to attract young voters, and then built nothing but a stump speech. No plan to do anything with it if they "caught it." Because for a long long time, I think that they didn't expect much traction, and didn't think they would have to have actual solutions. It became clear to me early on that they never planned on actually winning. Then later on, they seem to have bought into the media hype, which is why we have things as they are now.

[Her Sister]

21. I like this a lot! Great imagery!

and it fits so well

[athena]

14. Wow, what a great article.

Thanks for posting it.

[skylucy]

15. Very interesting!

[skylucy]

16. And you don't create an environment that draws in the

"mainstream" voters by calling them all corrupt, sneering that they are all just "establishment", and constantly accusing them of rigging the election every time you didn't win the most votes. Also...pooping all over the ACA which our President and other Dems fought hard for (and yes... did have to make some compromises to get it passed) and forgetting that Hillary tried to pass universal healthcare when she was the first lady and was pilloried for it certainly didn't please those of us who lived through and remember it well. It was very obvious to me that many (not all, but many) of those who supported the BS revolution were politically active for the FIRST time in their lives and had a lot to learn about what it takes to affect real, positive change. That is ok...Life is a learning experience, and hopefully some will educate themselves and stay politically engaged in a positive way.

[forjusticethunders]

17. The money paragraph

To understand how all this applies to Bernie Sanders, let’s look at two movements with vastly disparate results: Occupy Wall Street and Otpor!. The former arose in the wake of the financial crisis, when young activists took over Zuccotti Park in lower Manhattan. Although their message of “the 99% vs. 1%” was compelling, they were back home within a few months, achieving little.

Now compare that to Otpor!, which was a similar group of activists in Serbia that sought to remove Slobodan Milošević from power, an objective that was achieved two years later. They went on to inspire and train other groups that sparked the Color Revolutions in Eastern Europe and the Arab Spring. To date, they’ve helped to overthrow regimes in half a dozen countries.

Today, the Otpor movement lives on in the form of the Center for Applied Nonviolent Action and Strategies (CANVAS) and its members travel around the world to advise and hold workshops for pro-democracy activists. CANVAS has worked in over 50 countries so far and has also developed a curriculum to spread its methods, which can be downloaded for free on its website.

Not a MOVEMENT.
A FAD.

It was MARKETING. Sanders tried to pre-package and market a revolution because he didn't know to make one, just like Occupy didn't know how to make one (and the OWS people ignored all the veteran organizers too). Major change takes years, often decades of on the ground organizing, sound tactics that are relevant to the facts on the ground, and a long-term, coherent vision. The "Left" threw that out after the 70s in favor of showy protests that ultimately accomplish nothing because they're just preaching to the choir.

There's a reason they call them CAMPAIGNS. Politics and war are, if not siblings, then cousins. As such, politics needs to be conducted with the level of precision, attention to detail, intelligence, savvy, and imagination needed to win a war. Maybe that's why the extreme Right wins all the time. Certainly the Left hasn't been able to pull it off in a century. Your plan cannot be, if you're serious, "focus group to a bunch of young voters, get them fired up on Twitter to make this look bigger than it actually is, throw everything together adhoc and then pray".

Ugh this shit makes me so mad seeing I used to support him because I spent too much time in the fever swamps of the political fringes instead of getting real news.

[Her Sister]

22. Excellent conclusion paragraphs there!

[KittyWampus]

19. I'd say the key is building a coalition. That involves compromise and patience. And organization.

[Blue Idaho]

24. Wow what a great thread!

I don't have much to offer, but I will offer this. Senator Sanders seems to always keep separation between himself and well, everyone else. He seems much more comfortable on a platform, in the spotlight, speaking at thousands of people. He seems far less comfortable listening to and responding to a few. He is great at the simply stated big picture stuff but pretty terrible at genuine empathy.

In the end anger will only get you so far. To really change the world you need a vision, compassion and a desire to serve others.

[MADem]

28. +1,000! nt

[realmirage]

29. I normally dislike Forbes but this is well done

They support their argument with actual research and science. This kind of reporting is a rarity.