The most recent IA caucus forecast from FiveThirtyEight

[BlueMTexpat]

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/iowa-democratic/

According to our latest polls-plus forecast, Hillary Clinton has an 82% chance of winning the Iowa caucuses.

The prediction does not mean that the race will not be close. There is every indication that it will be. But it's hardly time to lose heart despite the constant trashing of our candidate on DU. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-3195.html

[BlueMTexpat]

1. More from FiveThirtyEight in Iowa ...

http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/iowa-week/ Live blogging ...

What’s it like to be in Iowa with a presidential campaign in full swing? FiveThirtyEight’s politics team is on the ground and will be sharing updates all week, with a data-driven twist, of course.

[riversedge]

4. graph for Nate Silver: jan 14 = 82% chance of Hillary winning Iowa

graph for Nate Silver: jan 14 = 82% chance of Hillary winning Iowa
:large

[Treant]

5. That jibes with betting sites

(I always watch those because those people know what they're doing and can't afford to be wrong). Clinton's overall for the Democratic nomination is a strong 2/9. Sanders is a rather weak 3/1. O'Malley is a Don't Bother 100/1.

Sanders is mildly favored in NH. Last I looked, Clinton was strongly favored in IA, but they've since pulled that bet so I'm not sure. They usually pull a bet if the odds start running too close to even.

Really, if the Sanders people are so incredibly sure of themselves, they could make a killing.

[Coolest Ranger]

2. I hope this comes true

but you wouldn't know it by all the anti- Hillary hate i see on this site

[BlueMTexpat]

3. It's like the Twilight Zone

in some ways. I'll be so glad when the primaries are over.

[riversedge]

6. It is an alternate reality that is for sure. I am so glad that Hillary is strong and has a good team

[BlueMTexpat]

7. The crap that is being thrown at her is nothing new.

It is just sad to see so much of it coming from self-styled "Dems." But I have full faith in her and her team.

[riversedge]

14. Love your poster. Here you deserve a treat....

We needs some yummies to get us through the primary season.




Hillary for Iowa Retweeted
Katherine Faught ?@katiefaught12 7h7 hours ago

Well if this isn't the happiest contribution from a volunteer I don't know what is. #Hillary4IA #CaucusCookies 🍪

[BlueMTexpat]

17. Thanks, riversedge! Cookies are

awesome!

[Tommy2Tone]

8. Hillary wins Iowa and it's over for Bernie

Oh he will win NH but he has to win both to have a chance to win the nomination.

[BlueMTexpat]

9. Iowa and NH both receive

unduly disproportionate attention, IMO, and always have. BOTH races are likely to be very close and Bernie's BEST chance to win is in NH.

But Iowa is where Dems actually get together face-to-face to vote for other Dems, so Hillary's chances there are likely somewhat better than the most recent polls show, mainly because beloved Dems in the state (e.g., former Senator Tom Harkin, former Governor Tom Vilsack, etc.) are campaigning for her and that counts a lot for Iowans.

New Hampshire may also pleasantly surprise Hillary supporters, especially if more Independents vote in the GOP primary rather than in the Dem primary. That's the Wild Card for that state's primaries and if that happens, Bernie might not win.

But nothing's over until the actual events. HRC, bless her, is taking nothing for granted and I think that is great.

[Tommy2Tone]

12. Perception is sometimes everything.

Lose Iowa and NH and the feeling of here being inevitable could change. All I am saying.

[BlueMTexpat]

18. As a Hillary supporter, I have

never considered her "inevitable."

I have considered her - and still consider her - the BEST choice. My belief in that is not shaken, nor will it be, whatever happens in IA and/or NH. Secondly, Bernie Sanders is NO Barack Obama and NEVER can be.

Appealing as his economic ideas are, Bernie is simply not the vibrant, charismatic, well-rounded, young, biracial candidate with a consistent Dem track membership who was - and is - a de facto symbol of specific empowerment for those Americans who have been less empowered for centuries.

For all of his strengths, Bernie can never be PBO. And Hillary did not lose by much even to the wonderful candidate that PBO was.

I don't think of HRC's candidacy as "inevitable." I think of her candidacy as promise.

[Tommy2Tone]

27. We agree

Obama took one thing that Bernie can't take from Hillary. People of color.

[BlueCaliDem]

29. Exactly!

This is that all-important nugget Bernie supporters are forgetting or ignoring when they try to make comparisons between President Obama and Bernie in this primary election. I believe some even believe that Bernie will attract more Republican voters than any other Democratic candidate in recent history, and that those people will fill the void of lack of minorities supporting Bernie.

[Tommy2Tone]

31. Bernie is winning the race for people who don't vote.

I see a lot of white noise but where is he getting traction? In two of the whitest of white states and from young people who don't vote.

The guy has been in the congress for 26 years and has done little to nothing and now some are seeing him as some sort of messiah who will get even the rethugs to follow him like the pied piper.

Bernie may win Iowa and New Hampshire but 11 days later there is Nevada and South Carolina and the key question is how will he do in a state that has a representative voter base? It's been 20 days but last poll I read in SC Hillary was up 40 points. If he wins Nevada or South Carolina we will talk.

[leftofcool]

15. I am not convinced that he will win NH

As a couple of women have stated lately, "never underestimate the power of the female vote."

[BlueMTexpat]

19. Always a good caution, loc. :)

[Silent_Greene]

10. *

*Worst-Case Scenario: Hillary loses the first two states (which I don't think she will) and still ends up as our nominee!

From Slate:

Even if Hillary staggers out of New Hampshire with her second loss in as many contests, she’ll still have the same massive advantages she enjoys today: the campaign and super PAC cash, the ground game, the endorsements, the pledged superdelegates, and the general support of a party establishment that won’t soon forget that her challenger is not technically even a part of the Democratic Party. An unexpected loss in Iowa and a less surprising one in New Hampshire wouldn’t change that.

She’d also have a chance to get back on her feet—and fast. Consider what comes next: Nevada (Feb. 20) and South Carolina (Feb. 27), two significantly more diverse states than lily-white Iowa and lily-whiter New Hampshire, and two places where Clinton currently enjoys massive leads in the polls. According to the RealClearPolitics rolling average, Clinton holds a 20-point advantage in Nevada and a whopping 40-point lead in South Carolina. March brings better news still for the former secretary of state, starting with a Super Tuesday slate that includes friendly territory in the form of southern states like Arkansas, Alabama, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia. The rest of the month, meanwhile, includes several big, delegate-rich contests that she won eight years ago during her battle with Barack Obama: Michigan, Florida, and Ohio. Yes, Sanders could have the momentum this time next month, but it’ll be on him to to find a way to keep it as he heads into significantly more challenging terrain than Iowa or New Hampshire, which were always going to offer his best chance at pulling off an early upset or two.

None of this is to say that Clinton has the nomination locked up already. She doesn’t. But if Iowa and New Hampshire are must-wins for anyone, it’s Sanders. Hillary can—and likely would—survive a slow start and still be the one standing on stage at the Democratic National Convention when the balloons come down this summer. Bernie, though, has no such margin of error.

[BlueMTexpat]

11. IMO, this is spot on.

Thanks for the link and the post.

[Metric System]

13. Exactly. The difference between now and 2008 is that the party is not split between the two

candidates. Bernie is not Barack. It's very telling that none of his current co-workers have endorsed him.

[Tommy2Tone]

16. The other difference is Bernie shows no signs of rallying people of color vote

[BlueMTexpat]

20. Exactly. eom

[BlueCaliDem]

30. That's gotten me curious, too.

Why haven't they? I know two U.S. Reps and an ex-Senator (Senator for 133 days) have endorsed him, but none of his current colleagues are. Why?

[FloridaBlues]

21. She's going to win the first states. Don't care what NH polling says

[BlueMTexpat]

22. In my heart, I hope you're right.

In my head, I know that anything can happen between polls and actual elections, whichever way the polls predict.

In a personal effort to help, I sent in a contribution to HRC's campaign this morning - my first of 2016.

[Squinch]

28. A loss early will not be a disaster for her. It will make Bernie a more serious candidate

and he will finally be vetted by the media.

He has not yet been vetted, and like everyone, he has characteristics that people won't like. Those are not widely known right now.

[yallerdawg]

23. I think March 1 SEC Primary will put all this to rest.

Of course, Sanders will still keep soliciting donations and milking his 'popularity' financially - campaign donations can be used for all kinds of things.

It is just as Kasich said at the debate - a Sanders nomination will lead to a 50-state Republican sweep, and Democrats are not going to go along with that!

That's why we support the progressive liberal Democrat Hilary Clinton. Well, that - and she's a woman!

[BlueMTexpat]

25. Thanks for the good cheer, yallerdawg!

[BlueMTexpat]

26. Great to hear that!

Thanks for the link.