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Thu Jan 21, 2016, 02:16 AM

Why Bernie Sanders Still Doesn’t Pose a Critical Threat to Hillary Clinton

The Vermont senator may be surging, but black Democrats are her firewall.
By Jamelle Bouie

... the rapid rise of Sanders—and the pointed attacks from Clinton—obscure the extent to which the overall state of the race hasn’t changed. Clinton is still the favorite for the nomination, even as her path gets a little rockier and a little more difficult. And the reason isn’t hard to understand.


Take the recent Monmouth University poll of the Democratic race. Between December and January, Clinton lost her lead with white Democrats. Indeed, it vanished, dropping 23 points. Now, she’s tied with Sanders, 43 percent to 43 percent. But she’s grown her lead with black and Latino Democrats, winning 71 percent to 21 percent for the Vermont senator, up from 61 percent in January.


This lead with black and Latino Democrats isn’t just responsible for Clinton’s margin in national polling—where she outpaces Sanders by an average of 13 points—it’s responsible for her massive lead in the South Carolina primary, where black voters predominate and where Clinton crushes Sanders with an average margin of 40 points (although there’s been little polling in the state since the new year).


Which gets to a broader, more important point. Minority voters—and black Americans in particular—are the firewall for Clinton’s candidacy and the Democratic establishment writ large. As long as Clinton holds her lead with black Democrats, she’s tough (if not impossible) to beat in delegate-rich states like New York, New Jersey, Illinois, Ohio, and Texas. Even with momentum from wins in Iowa and New Hampshire, it’s hard to see how Sanders overcomes Clinton’s massive advantage with this part of the party’s electorate . That’s not to say he won’t excel as an insurgent candidate, but that—barring a seismic shift among black Democrats, as well as Latinos—his coalition won’t overcome her coalition.




http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/01/hillary_clinton_s_ties_to_black_democrats_will_save_her_campaign_from_bernie.html

19 replies, 1573 views

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Arrow 19 replies Author Time Post
Reply Why Bernie Sanders Still Doesn’t Pose a Critical Threat to Hillary Clinton (Original post)
SunSeeker Jan 2016 OP
Dawson Leery Jan 2016 #1
SunSeeker Jan 2016 #2
Treant Jan 2016 #10
underthematrix Jan 2016 #12
Dawson Leery Jan 2016 #18
underthematrix Jan 2016 #19
underthematrix Jan 2016 #3
SunSeeker Jan 2016 #5
underthematrix Jan 2016 #6
SunSeeker Jan 2016 #11
underthematrix Jan 2016 #14
Post removed Jan 2016 #4
underthematrix Jan 2016 #7
Tarheel_Dem Jan 2016 #8
underthematrix Jan 2016 #9
SunSeeker Jan 2016 #13
underthematrix Jan 2016 #16
Hortensis Jan 2016 #15
marble falls Jan 2016 #17

Response to SunSeeker (Original post)

Thu Jan 21, 2016, 02:21 AM

1. A new poll has her up 5 in Iowa.

She has Obama's people running her ground game (as real Democrats help fellow real Democrats).

Also, the Monmouth poll says she gained 10 points with various minority groups.
Clearly, they are not buying the Bernonsense.

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Response to Dawson Leery (Reply #1)

Thu Jan 21, 2016, 02:24 AM

2. Yes, and Bernie jumping the shark calling PP and HRC "establishment" is only going to help Hillary.

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Response to SunSeeker (Reply #2)

Thu Jan 21, 2016, 03:01 AM

10. Dumping on PP

was not a smart move. But it was a desperation move.

Iowa's notoriously hard to estimate (NH isn't that easy, either). I think she's got it in IA and loses NH by a considerable margin, but really, any outcome won't surprise me given past performance of every primary in those two states.

Post that? There's no way Bernie's going anywhere in SC, so the worst case is two insufferable weeks at DU.

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Response to Dawson Leery (Reply #1)

Thu Jan 21, 2016, 03:07 AM

12. POCs don't have time for Bernie madness

and dumping on PP when the Repugs are trying to DEFUND PP and take away women's healthcare choices just shows how out of touch Bernie really is.

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Response to underthematrix (Reply #12)

Thu Jan 21, 2016, 03:20 PM

18. The difference between Planned Parenthood and Bernie is

that Planned Parenthood does something good for women.
The attack fits right in with the Berniebros sexism.

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Response to Dawson Leery (Reply #18)

Thu Jan 21, 2016, 05:09 PM

19. PREACH!

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Response to SunSeeker (Original post)

Thu Jan 21, 2016, 02:28 AM

3. This is the best tweet I've seen about Bernie

#BernieSandersPanders

I wanted to post the tweet in another thread but all I could do was post a link https://twitter.com/southerntalker/status/690045609483583488?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

I wish I could post the image in response to another post but I don't know how. I tried but didn't work.

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Response to underthematrix (Reply #3)

Thu Jan 21, 2016, 02:40 AM

5. You mean this?

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Response to SunSeeker (Reply #5)

Thu Jan 21, 2016, 02:41 AM

6. Yes. Tell me how you did that and a BIG THANK YOU!! for posting it

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Response to underthematrix (Reply #6)

Thu Jan 21, 2016, 03:03 AM

11. It's easy. You just need to set up a Photobucket accout or similar site.

When you see an image like that on twitter, just right click on it with your mouse, and select "Save Picture As" from the drop down menu and save it to your desktop.

Then you have to go to photobucket.com (or similar site) and upload it, after setting up an account there (it's free). Once you upload the picture to photobucket.com, the site gives it a url file name that is basically a website link. You copy that link into your DU post and the picture magically appears in your post. To make sure the link works, just hit the Preview button to see how it looks before hitting the "Post my reply!" button.

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Response to SunSeeker (Reply #11)

Thu Jan 21, 2016, 03:09 AM

14. Thank you. I'll try it with google pics before I go with Photobucket

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Response to SunSeeker (Original post)


Response to SunSeeker (Original post)

Thu Jan 21, 2016, 02:45 AM

7. please please do not alert on the post above my reply.

I just tweeted link to post

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Response to underthematrix (Reply #7)

Thu Jan 21, 2016, 02:47 AM

8. My first instinct was to alert, which I never do, but I'll take your advice. I can't believe anyone

would think it's okay to make that post anywhere on DU, especially in this group.

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Response to Tarheel_Dem (Reply #8)

Thu Jan 21, 2016, 02:50 AM

9. Thank you. I've already tweeted about the reply

HRC is doing great. The more they attack the better.

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Response to underthematrix (Reply #9)

Thu Jan 21, 2016, 03:08 AM

13. Already tombstoned, that was quick.

No way is an n-word laced racist rant going to be allowed to stand on DU, nor should it.

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Response to SunSeeker (Reply #13)

Thu Jan 21, 2016, 03:10 AM

16. I'm AA but don't take that madness to heart but I understand

Last edited Thu Jan 21, 2016, 05:11 PM - Edit history (1)

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Response to underthematrix (Reply #9)

Thu Jan 21, 2016, 03:10 AM

15. But not this way, right?! A one-post nasty come

to blast hate. Or possibly a regular hiding behind a different name. The hostile tone was typical of what we see so much of in GD-P, but the wording was definitely that of someone who didn't mind immediate banning.

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Response to underthematrix (Reply #7)

Thu Jan 21, 2016, 01:06 PM

17. I hope you don't believe he is a real Sandernista. This was a RW troll.

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