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CajunBlazer

(5,648 posts)
Sun Jan 24, 2016, 06:26 PM Jan 2016

Sanders Has Caught Up with Clinton in Iowa? Possible but Not Likely

Last edited Sun Jan 24, 2016, 07:49 PM - Edit history (1)

Sanders Has Caught Up with Clinton in Ohio? Possible but Not Likely

A new CNN/ORC poll of the probable Democratic Caucus goers in Iowa had TV talking heads all excited and Bernie Sanders supporters all a twitter (literally) because it indicated that good ole Bernie had moved from 8 points behind Hillary Clinton to 8 points ahead, almost over night. Suddenly it appeared that Sanders had a real possibility if posting a clean sweep in Iowa and New Hampshire providing him much needed momentum going into Nevada and South Carolina and the so called Southeaster Conference primaries March 1st.

However, if you listened closely to the background conversations you would have noticed that both campaigns were downplaying that poll as an outlier and with good reason. Take a look at the table below from realclearpolitics.com showing the most recent Iowa polls and follow along. (The link to the poll table only available on original article - see link below.))

First note the numbers for each of the eight polls in the column, “Sample”. That data indicates the numbers of interviews use in the polls as samples. (The letters “LV” indicates that all the polls were canvassed using live telephone interviews rather than robotic calls.) Note 4 of the 5 polls that show Hillary ahead were based on more than 500 interviews and the 5th was based on 461 interviews. Then note that the recent CNN/ONC poll showing Sanders ahead by 8 points was conducted with only 280 interviews. All other factors being equal, polls based on more interviews are always considered more accurate.

Then notice three latest polls, including the CNN/ORC poll. That poll and the other two (KBR and Loras College) were all canvassed during the same time frame – 1/13-1/20........

Rest of article here: Sanders Has Caught Up with Clinton in Ohio? Possible but Not Likely

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Sanders Has Caught Up with Clinton in Iowa? Possible but Not Likely (Original Post) CajunBlazer Jan 2016 OP
Okay, but what about Ohio? drm604 Jan 2016 #1
Thanks much, fixed CajunBlazer Jan 2016 #4
It's been confirmed that that poll is an outlier. Iliyah Jan 2016 #2
If true it is has to do with Clinton's shift away from Medicare for All. draa Jan 2016 #3
I wouldn't trust anything printed on Daily Kos - it's become a Bernie cesspool CajunBlazer Jan 2016 #5
Ok then, I think we're done here. draa Jan 2016 #6
You're right.. you're done here. Cha Jan 2016 #8
You don't know what you're talking about. this is Hillary's Group.. We're into reality. Cha Jan 2016 #7

Iliyah

(25,111 posts)
2. It's been confirmed that that poll is an outlier.
Sun Jan 24, 2016, 06:33 PM
Jan 2016

But it didn't stop the propaganda corporate media from reported 24/7 tho.

draa

(975 posts)
3. If true it is has to do with Clinton's shift away from Medicare for All.
Sun Jan 24, 2016, 06:35 PM
Jan 2016

The polling out of Iowa indicates that the trust issue on Health Care flipped after Clinton moved away from that party position. She lost -38pts in Iowa alone on that issue with the majority (slight) supporting Bernie where Clinton led on that issue by almost 30pts before the shift. I would guess that if this Ohio poll is accurate it has to do with that issue (81% of Democrats support it).

I would post the link but it's somewhere on Dkos and their new format is screwy. I hate even going there anymore so fell free to look for it. It's just from Iowa but the polling from NH (after Clinton's shift) showed the same type movement though I never saw the breakdown on that issue. Thanks.

draa

(975 posts)
6. Ok then, I think we're done here.
Sun Jan 24, 2016, 08:09 PM
Jan 2016

And it was an article linked on Dkos. But don't let that get in your way of being a partisan.

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