Cook Political Analysis: Bernie must win 70% of IA delegates & 63% of NH just to stay competitive
Cross-posting from GDP, because I think it is interesting:
Bernie-Mania's Barrier: Democratic Delegate Math
The key takeaway from our model below: in order for Sanders to be "on track" to break even in pledged delegates nationally, he wouldn't just need to win Iowa and New Hampshire by a hair. He would need to win 70 percent of Iowa's delegates and 63 percent of New Hampshire's delegates.
Early primary results can be misleading, but presidential primaries tend to follow clear patterns. In 2008, Super Tuesday produced a virtual tie for Democrats; Barack Obama edged Clinton 847 to 834 in delegates that day. But thanks to Obama's heavy backing from African-Americans and liberal whites, savvy number crunchers could discern that he was "on track" to build an insurmountable delegate lead in upcoming primaries like Maryland and Virginia. In other words, the race was already over. This time around, close finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire would be good news for Clinton.
Furthermore, even if Sanders did hit every delegate target on our scorecard below and won 50 percent of pledged delegates, he would be at a severe disadvantage heading into the Philadelphia convention because our model doesn't even take into account his severe superdelegate deficit.
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However, when placed in the proper mathematical context, this year's Democratic primary remains a much steeper mountain for Sanders than many chroniclers of the campaign trail seem to realize or acknowledge.
http://cookpolitical.com/story/9179
Rationale, methodology and more at the link.
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Last edited Sat Jan 30, 2016, 11:58 AM - Edit history (2)
That puts it all back into proper perspective. All the "stuff" (only nice way I can put it) in the media and general discussion posts about the superiority of the Sanders revolution and his agenda is nothing more than an unpleasant distraction from reality.
I worry, though, about the inevitable disillusionment of his young first-time political supporters. Even if Sanders were to win somehow, he would not be able to do any of what he said: would not be able to create jobs or end inequality, would not be able to "break up the big banks" that are pretty international now, would not be able to offer free college for everyone or free healthcare, would not end moneyed interests in politics, would not be the first person on the planet to get the "Muslim nations" to join together and form a coalition to defeat extremism, would not end racism and classism, would not shatter the glass ceiling or bring patriarchy down, would not magically make much of right-wing America suddenly realize they were actually more liberal than they thought and give up on obstruction, would not properly address the problem of gun violence, would not be able to "save the Middle Class", etc.
What of his supporters whether Sanders loses or wins and becomes impotent? Will they learn from their mistake and be more careful or will they become bitter like Tea Partiers? Our future depends on active and thoughtful political engagement. So much is at stake.
