Prediction: Who will win the Republican Primaries...it ain't Trump nor Cruz

[FrenchieCat]

Last edited Sat Feb 27, 2016, 12:36 AM - Edit history (3)

I.e., who our Democratic Nominee will face in the general election.

Those of us who believe that Donald Trump will be the eventual nominee are more than likely mistaken. Those of us who believe that the primary race is between The Donald and Cruz, I believe are also incorrect.

The way I see it, both of these men have been a distraction and a media shield for who will be the eventual nominee; Senator Marco Rubio.

If you haven’t noticed, Rubio has been in the middle of the pack all year. The review of his debates performances have been glowing, and although he has been polling 3rd in Iowa and New Hampshire for some time, the media has been oddly silent about him until very recently, while they discuss Trump and Cruz ad nauseas.

Rubio is the GOP establishment pick. He is the one that can bring in Latino Voters (so they think), excite enough of the Republican party youth, and win Florida (as he has already won statewide there).

He is a decent looking young guy; a mix between Rickie Ricardo and Frank Sinatra in appearance, has a cute family, a compelling life story, and can talk up an awfully good word salad (I've watched him on C-Span) that will leave many unclear without noticing. You will note how tough he's sounded on Foreign policy; the exact thing Republicans love to hear, as for them, that connotes strength. His only Tea Party failure is his noticeable participation on immigration policies, as he was 1 in the gang of 8 who attempted to fashion a bi-partisan somewhat reasonable policy. This may not play well in the primaries, but will play much better in the general election. Additionally, he is not another Bush aka Jeb.

The current strategy is to have him come in strong third in Iowa, and then, we will see him surging in New Hampshire, a state that dislikes Cruz, and although Trump is currently leading, the establishment will be working hard at bringing Trump down. I doubt Trump survives, as his intended use will have expired; to keep the country distracted during most of the pre-primaries.

After Iowa, some of the other losing establishment candidates will leave the race. More will quit after New Hampshire. This will consolidate the non-tea- party vote to Rubio, who polls show as 2nd or 3rd pick on most GOP voters' list.

If Rubio wins the primaries, he will most likely select former Ohio Governor John Kasich as his Vice President. That's why Kasich is even in the race. The Republicans need Ohio, and they need someone on the ticket that has not only won statewide there, is still liked by many, and almost sounds reasonable, especially after what has taken place during the Primaries…plus a la Biden, he will be more reassuring to Middle America quasi racists to have Kasich on the ticket, when there is a Cuban as the head of it. Please also note that Between Rubio and Kasich, the two have won almost all of the newspaper endorsements.

Rubio, they believe, is their Obama, and Kasich is their Biden.

The GOP Establishment does not believe that Republicans will vote for Hillary (that's why Rubio has to win, cause if Trump win, they just may), But they are worried about Women (who may stand in line for 7 hours to vote for the first woman Prez, including those single woman voters who have not bothered to vote as of yet), Minorities, and Middle of the road Independents (socially liberal, but fiscally conservative) who remember the 1990s as great economic years.

They also know for a fact that the country, in the majority, will not vote for a Green Party/Naderite/Democratic Socialist old guy screaming revolution from Vermont while demanding tax hikes, and another fight on health care, and free college (GOP will term that over and over again as the redistribution of wealth to give out free stuff and government controlled health care); not in Ohio, Pennsylvania, or Florida (and some other states as well). They also know that any National Security "October Surprise" will be the end of Sanders for sure, as long as they can present a somewhat "reasonable" alternative. If they can run against Sanders, far as they are concerned, they will end up winning and achieving their long awaited wet dream; a GOP Trifecta! That's why the GOP is (not so) silently rooting for Bernie Sanders to win the Primaries.

That's my analysis backing up my prediction.

(updated 2/11/16 - My Prediction was incorrect, as Robot Rubio proved to be nothing more than a lightweight, as GOP candidates normally are, but it showed early with this one - I'll write another one of these when I have a better inkling! LOL)

(updated 2/24/16 -= My Prediction may still be correct, as Rubio has been rehabilitated, and now is "bad boy Rubio". He is their last chance! So we shall see)

[Treant]

1. That depends

If the party heads have completely lost control of the party--Trump. That includes immunity to every trick they can pull on Trump, which I don't count on.

In a brokered convention, Rubio. This decision will not impress or enamor the party leaders to the more extreme voter.

Heavy battling continues through April on the Republican side.

On our side, Clinton takes IA by a nose, loses NH by a fair margin, then takes NV modestly, SC by a landslide, and most of the states on Super Tuesday.

Sanders' star fades through February as voters notice he's really very nasty and his flying monkeys continue to crap unchecked on everything online.

Clinton has this wrapped up in March.

[FrenchieCat]

2. We'll just have to watch the Media....

as they take their marching orders from the GOP establishment.

Keep a look out on the kind of coverage he gets after placing a strong third in Iowa....


There is also this....although it's old....

Senator Marco Rubio – Tea Party Choice for Vice-President
http://www.teapartyexpress.org/4852/senator-marco-rubio-tea-party-choice-for-vice-president

And I think Tea partiers will rather vote for Rubio than to lose the White House in 2016.

[Ana Hauhet]

13. Fox news isnt even bothering w Trump

After the debate debacle they mostly show the rest of the candidates with a push for Rubio. I noticed that whenever they show Cruz they show him with a green tint like a green grinch.

The only place to not see Trump is Fox these days. I guess they don't find him cute nor newsworthy

[OhZone]

11. Ohyeah, I think you have it exactly right, Treant. nt

[Anfibio]

3. Good piece

But I think the wing nuts are ready to pick Trump. They believe his lies and share his hatred.

[FrenchieCat]

6. Well, it certainly might be that it isn't in the Establishment's power.....

But we are witnessing that battle now....

so again, we will see what happens.

[Iliyah]

4. Agreed

I view Rubio not up for the fight. I see Jebbie or Kasich.

[Hekate]

9. I think Jeb? is too damaged at this point....

...although that might just be wishful thinking on my part.

[mr_liberal]

5. My thoughts exactly. nm

[Kablooie]

7. Cruz and Trump will split the Nutso votes ...

Leaving Rubio with the most of the rest and when it comes to convention time there will be plenty of uncommitted super delegates available to push Rubio over the top.

[Hekate]

8. I agree that's plausible. Both Rubio and Kasich are very presentable....

We know they are as far right as the rest of the pack, but I doubt the rest of the country knows that. So there we are: a brokered convention by the GOP to save the Party from itself, and we'll have two presentable guys on the ticket.

If by any chance Bernie gets the nod, we are well and truly screwed, because there goes the Undecided Voters, and if Bloomberg steps in, oh hell.

"Bernie and his flying monkeys" -- I love that phrase. Flying monkeys and flying spittle, what a turnoff.

[brer cat]

10. Good analysis, FrenchieCat.

Trump and Cruz are the stuff of nightmares, and unelectable imo. Rubio/Kashich are scary because that ticket has a chance if the dems fail to GOTV.

[OhZone]

12. The tea baggers have fallen completely in love -

with their demagogue Mussolini! And they think he has a chance in the General. It's amazing.

How in the hell do they think he can take on Hillary or any world leader, if he's scared of Megan Kelly? And he calls his fans stupid, by saying he could shoot someone in Times Square and not lose votes.

If any non-fascist said that, they would be out of the race in days.

Oh well.

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[HubertHeaver]

14. My prediction:

Trump gets shutout in Iowa.

[Dawson Leery]

15. k/r

It is no mistake that Rove is running ads against Hillary. The GOP wants a loser such as Bernie to be the nominee.