Hillary Clinton
Related: About this forumAfter Iowa and New Hampshire, Bernie is in trouble
Bernie Sanders has an outside chance of winning Iowa and is well ahead in New Hampshire. His devoted followers believe that if he can manage to win both states, the momentum gained will propel him to eventual victory. However, momentum, in order to be effective, must be maintained. Have ever watched a sporting event when one team appears to have all of the momentum and then bang! - in only one play the momentum changes sides and the other team ends up victorious. Politics is no different.
Its strange that Iowas caucus and New Hampshires primary are the first states to test Presidential candidates because they are so atypical of our country as a whole Iowa because of the strange rules used to pick the winners and New Hampshire because it is arguably the most libertarian state in the nation.
While Bernie could possibly win both Iowa and New Hampshire, any momentum he gains will be quickly be blunted because the next states in line are dramatically different and he is way behind in them. So lets explore what Bernie can gain in the first caucus and the first primary and why his campaign is very likely to travel in reverse thereafter:
First of before even Iowa and New Hampshire, Hillary starts out with a big lead in super delegates: Hillary 344, Sanders 12, OMalley 3 = Hillary +332. Super delegates are Democratic Distinguished party leaders, Governors, Senators, Representatives, and DNC members who have committed to a candidate. Currently 354 Super delegates remain uncommitted, but more are committing to Hillary every week.
Now lets look at the poll results for the early state caucuses and primaries:
First come Iowa and New Hampshire with a total of 85 delegates
Iowa (2/1) - average of 7 most recent polls - Hillary +3.3
New Hampshire (2/9) - average of 7 most recent poles - Sanders +14.3
Then right behind are Nevada and South Carolina with a total 96 delegates
Nevada (2/20) average of 2 most recent polls Hillary +19.5
South Carolina (2/27) - average of 2 most recent polls Hillary +29.5
Then almost immediately comes the what is often called Southeastern Conference primaries (All 3/1)
Alabama (58 delegates) no recent polls, expected to be like other southern states
American Samoa (10 delegates) no recent polls
Arkansas (37 delegates) - no recent polls, expected to be like other southern states
Colorado (77 delegates) poll in November Hillary +28
Georgia (112 delegates) poll in October Hillary +57
Massachusetts (121 delegates) poll in November Hillary +25
Minnesota (94 delegates) poll in January Hillary +35
Oklahoma (42 delegates) - poll in November Hillary +35
Tennessee (77 delegates) poll in November Hillary +20
Texas (237 delegates) poll in November Hillary +31
Vermont (23 delegates) - no recent polls
Virginia (112 delegates) poll in November Hillary +36
As you can see many are Southern states with large minority populations, a situation which is expected to help Clinton. Looking at the polling results for the SEC primaries states, while for some states the poll results are getting a bit old for my comfort, it is going to be very difficult for Sanders to make up for those kinds of big negative numbers.
Only Vermont and American Somoa appear to be winnable for Bernie and we dont even have polls for those areas which total only 33 delegates. If Bernie wins both Iowa and New Hampshire (a feat that is by no means guaranteed) plus Vermont and American Soma he will have victories in four states with 118 delegates. He would also have 12 super delegates. If Hillary wins the other caucuses and primaries as expected, by March 2nd she will have won victories in states having 1,063 delegates along with 332 super delegates. At that point the Sanders campaign could well be hanging on by a thread.
If you are a Sanders fan and you are hoping for help in the remaining caucuses and primaries, there is really no good news. There are current polls for only a few of the remaining states, and here are the results of those state polls. They dont look very encouraging for Bernie:
Ohio (3/15 121 delegates) 2 recent polls Hillary +29
Arizona (3/22 75 delegates) - poll in November Hillary +28
Utah (3/22 28 delegates) poll in January Hillary +10
Alaska (3/25 28 delegates) poll in January Hillary +3
Wisconsin (4/5 89 delegates) poll in January Hillary +2
Maryland (4/26 -105 delegates) poll in January Hillary +13
Connecticut (4/26 65 delegates) poll in November Hillary +19
Pennsylvania (4/26 181 delegates) - poll in January Hillary +17
West Virginia (5/10 35 delegates) - poll in January Hillary +17
California (6/7 - 476 delegates) - poll in January Hillary +11
Montana (6/7 22 delegates) poll in November Hillary +39
New Jersey (6/7 126 delegates) 2 polls in November Hillary +35
At the Democratic convention there will be 3,636 pledged delegates and 713 unpledged super delegates for a total of 4349 delegates. It takes a plurality of 2175 delegates to win. The bottom line for Sanders supporters dont expect Bernie Sanders be raising his hands in victory at the national convention.
Iliyah
(25,111 posts)workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)His strength is in 90% plus white northern/eastern states and then even smaller, upper middle class.
The fact that Hillary is 3% ahead of him in a state like this...Iowa, showcases the incredible weakness of Bernie Sanders as a national candidate in a general/nationwide election.
Bernie would be a McGovern wipe out/landslide republican victory if democratic voters were foolish enough to choose him as their candidate for president.
Thank God for all the big delegate rich diverse states that aren't buying the snake oil that Bernie is selling!
ismnotwasm
(41,974 posts)It's going to be a grueling primary for all our candidates. Hillary is coming cross as strong and stable.
Treant
(1,968 posts)IA is a state where Bernie should be killin' it. It's very homogenously white, and a caucus state where supporters can easily overwhelm an "establishment" candidate.
None of the polls indicate that happening, and very few states are whiter.
If he can't play well there, he can't play well in too many places.
stonecutter357
(12,694 posts)yallerdawg
(16,104 posts)or it is done.
Hillary is already moving on to the Republican - take your pick, they are all the same!
asuhornets
(2,405 posts)Oh how I wished you would have post this OP in the Gen Dis: Prim.
CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)Stuckinthebush
(10,843 posts)and I think the general consensus is that they don't want to see no stinkin' facts!
pandr32
(11,574 posts)Go Hillary!
jmowreader
(50,546 posts)You may have seen it: Someone said Bernie was "more electable" than Hillary because Bernie has never lost a presidential primary...so I said that I must be a better pitcher than Randy Johnson because he's lost a lot more games than I have. That shit just went RIGHT over their heads...come on kids, if Bernie's never run for president before, and he has not, how the hell could he lose a presidential primary?
Tommy2Tone
(1,307 posts)Bernie has to win both and he's out of white states. Hard to see him winning any state with a diverse population.