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Sat Feb 27, 2016, 09:11 AM

OK...what will the threshold be for a virtual tie after SC and Super Tuesday?

20 points? Remember, a comfortable win in Nevada was called a razor thin margin.

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Reply OK...what will the threshold be for a virtual tie after SC and Super Tuesday? (Original post)
LexVegas Feb 2016 OP
George II Feb 2016 #1
vdogg Feb 2016 #2
72DejaVu Feb 2016 #3
DemonGoddess Feb 2016 #4
Treant Feb 2016 #5
obamanut2012 Feb 2016 #6
Chichiri Feb 2016 #7
BillyDawg Feb 2016 #8

Response to LexVegas (Original post)

Sat Feb 27, 2016, 09:13 AM

1. Nate Silver is thinking of changing the margin of error to plus/minus 25

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Response to LexVegas (Original post)

Sat Feb 27, 2016, 09:19 AM

2. According to Bernie's surrogates on CNN A bit ago

They said if they can get it within 10 they'll consider it a sort of victory.

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Response to LexVegas (Original post)

Sat Feb 27, 2016, 09:20 AM

3. As long as one person votes for Bernie

the media will say "Opposition to Clinton persists".

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Response to LexVegas (Original post)

Sat Feb 27, 2016, 09:20 AM

4. meh

that's because they don't do math ya know. Getting within 10 points is still a loss. I don't see him getting anywhere near that margin, to be frank.

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Response to LexVegas (Original post)

Sat Feb 27, 2016, 10:06 AM

5. Whatever the results actually are,

plus about 5, of course. So even if she wins by 30, she would have needed 35 to actually "win."

I'm personally estimating about Clinton +22, so a virtual tie will be Clinton +27 if I'm correct.

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Response to LexVegas (Original post)

Sat Feb 27, 2016, 10:08 AM

6. Anything under 20 points

Anything over will be "Clinton edged out...'

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Response to LexVegas (Original post)

Sat Feb 27, 2016, 01:09 PM

7. The longer the conflict, the higher the ratings.

All non-commercial media are either firmly pro-Bernie, or have already started looking forward to the general.

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Response to LexVegas (Original post)

Sat Feb 27, 2016, 01:12 PM

8. I've seen a lot of people say

 

Under 20 points would be considered a good day. I know I was on record saying New Hampshire would have been good for Hillary is she got it under 10 -- and I really do think that applies for Bernie today too -- but to set the bar at 20 is insane.

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