Here's what needs to happen for Hillary to lose....

[Chichiri]

In a post he made just before South Carolina, MattTX at DailyKos, a Bernie supporter and a VERY thorough and pretty objective numbers wonk, laid out three scenarios in which Bernie could still win the nomination. The entire post is full of charts and graphs and analysis, and is well worth the read.

Here are his benchmarks for the first scenario, which is the worst case scenario in which Bernie could still win. This assumes a gradual national polling shift to a tie in late March, and then to a 51-40 Bernie lead by June 7. The +numbers represent the candidate's cumulative total of pledged delegates.

March 1: Hillary +104
March 5: Hillary +106
March 15: Hillary +184 (last of the south)
March 26: Hillary +176
April 1: Hillary +143 (Bernie landslides WA)
April 19: Hillary +135 (Bernie wins NY)
April 26: Hillary +132
May 3: Hillary +117 (Bernie wins IN)
May 10: Hillary +109 (Bernie wins WV)
June 7: Bernie +7 (Bernie wins CA and other remaining states)


The second scenario is both more likely (according to MattTX) and better for Bernie; it assumes a tie by mid-March, and then a sustained 47-44 Bernie lead in national polls by April 9. Remember, however, that this was written before SC.

February 27: Hillary +12 (Bernie comes close in SC)
March 1: Hillary +68 (Bernie comes REALLY close on Super Tuesday)
March 8: Hillary +77
March 15: Hillary +112 (Bernie wins MO and OH)
March 26: Hillary +96
April 9: Hillary +44 (Bernie landslides WA)

...and it gets better for Bernie from there, until he wins by 23 delegates.


The third scenario is an extension of the second, in which Bernie's national polling lead continues to increase, all the way to 50-41 on June 7.

April 26: Hillary +50
May 10: Hillary +27
June 7: Bernie +75 (Bernie wins CA)


So any reasonable scenario for a Hillary loss must have the following:

1. Bernie is no more than 104 delegates behind after Super Tuesday.
2. Bernie is no more than 184 delegates behind after March 15.
3. Bernie is leading in national polls by April 1, and stays in the lead.
4. Bernie wins Washington state by a landslide.
5. Bernie wins California.
6. The vast majority of superdelegates break with Hillary and support Bernie.


That's what needs to happen for Hillary to lose. What do you think?

[DesertRat]

1. I think those numbers look great for Sec'y Clinton

[Treant]

2. I don't see it.

The second supposedly more probable scenario burned brightly and went to ash in SC. Bernie's not projected to come close in TX or GA, the two big plums in the pudding, and is only projected to win small states.

Scenario #1 could happen, but...that doesn't seem likely at this point. Clinton is already at +26 delegates before a single Super Tuesday vote is cast. I'm thinking she sails past that +104 target.

Most of the big prizes are leaning Clinton after Super Tuesday, and tomorrow certainly isn't going to appreciably blunt her momentum--at worst, it'll be a delegate advantage for her, with some very nice wins. I can't see New York, Illinois, or Pennsylvania ending with Bernie wins, for example.

[Treant]

3. Also, this is great news!

For John McCain!!!11!!!!

[George II]

4. "Bernie is no more than 104 delegates behind after Super Tuesday." - he'll be more than....

...200 behind after tomorrow, maybe as high as 250. He'll be further behind after March 15, and will never be ahead at any time.

[Agnosticsherbet]

5. As my grandfather said, "That is a tough row to hoe."

It makes a lot of assumptions.

[yallerdawg]

6. I think if elephants could fly...

we'd be in a world of shit!

So when I see my first elephant soaring overhead, maybe Bernie could win!

And then we'll definitely be in a world of shit!

[Her Sister]

7. Haha! Let the games begin!

Feeling specially good!

[MineralMan]

8. Well, Bernie is already 26 delegates behind right now.

Hillary will pick up more than half of the 800 total unpledged delegates up for grabs on Tuesday. Remember that delegates are allocated according to the voting proportions.

Even being very, very conservative and allowing for Bernie to do better in some states than polling indicates, Hillary will be over 250 delegates ahead on Wednesday morning. She could be far ahead of that, though. I'm currently projecting that she'll have a 350 delegate lead following Super Tuesday.

Sanders won't admit it, but his case will be hopeless from then on. Florida's delegates will go, in the majority to her, and even in California, a Sanders win, which I do not expect, would be very close, leading to an almost equal division of delegates. Her lead will not go away. It can't, statistically, by June.

Worst case for Sanders, and it's a real possibility, is that he loses in all states on Tuesday but Vermont. If that happens, even he will have to recognize that the race is effectively over. He may hang in there, but he would have no chance to win the nomination in that situation, since the momentum will have shifted permanently toward Clinton.

Watch this site on Wednesday, as they post the delegate count:

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/D