STATE OF THE PRIMARY - March 2, 2016 (FINAL DRAFT)
Last edited Wed Mar 2, 2016, 05:40 PM - Edit history (1)
(Okay, I survived the jury. Make sure you watch my signature, however, and if I disappear you can still find SotP at http://stateoftheprimary.blogspot.com/)
Delegate Count
Total Delegates (AP): Clinton 1,034, Sanders 408 (Clinton +626).
Pledged Delegates: Clinton 596, Sanders 399 (Clinton +197).
Versus Targets: Clinton 596/529 (+67), Sanders 399/492 (-93).
2,383 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Latest Results
Super Tuesday: Clinton 505, Sanders 334 (Clinton +171); 26 not yet allocated.
Versus Targets: Clinton 505/453 (+52), Sanders 334/412 (-78).
Next Primary: March 5
Kansas, Louisiana, Nebraska: 109 delegates total.
Targets: Clinton 57, Sanders 52.
Latest Polls
Florida (University of North Florida): Clinton 54, Sanders 24 (Clinton +30).
Current Polls-Plus Projections
Michigan: Clinton 60.7, Sanders 36.3.
North Carolina: Clinton 59.7, Sanders 36.8.
Ohio: Clinton 60.1, Sanders 37.6.
Florida: Clinton 66.8, Sanders 30.6.
Illinois: Clinton 65.5, Sanders 30.4.
Current Endorsement Score
Clinton 478, Sanders 5.
Quick Glance at the GOP
Pledged Delegates: Trump 316, Cruz 226, Rubio 106.
Michigan Projection: Trump 36, Rubio 24, Cruz 16.
Endorsement Score: Rubio 157, Cruz 34, Kasich 31.
Comments
So the good news (for a Hillary supporter) is that Hillary is now almost mathematically certain to win the nomination after Super Tuesday. The bad news is, "silly season" is going to go on for some time to come.
Bernie frankly did better than I thought he would. In addition to winning Vermont, won Oklahoma, Colorado, and -- this one is especially painful for me -- Minnesota, all by very comfortable margins. He did lose Massachusetts, but just barely; I'm sure they're calling it a "virtual tie" a la Iowa. Clinton, however, took even more comfortable margins in the six southern states.
In order to meet his FiveThirtyEight target, Bernie needed much more than the 334 delegates he currently has.
How This Works
All information is taken from FiveThirtyEight except for the total delegate count, which is taken from AP. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention).
The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination; they take into account factors such as demographics. The projection numbers indicate the average of the candidates' expected vote shares. Italic font denotes that the 80% confidence intervals of the candidates overlap, meaning there's at least a 10% chance that the person with the higher vote share will not win that state. The endorsement score refers to
Pun of the Day
I was wondering why the baseball was getting bigger. Then it hit me!
= new reply since forum marked as read
Looks like we're going to get our female president and another historic win for the United States of America! I can't wait for President Obama and VP Biden to come out and endorse then campaign for her. And I'm looking forward to Julian Castro as Hillary's VP running mate!
WoooHOOOO! PAR-TAAAAY!
aw man, that last pun, a real groaner! I love it 
