691 Democratic Delegates at stake on March 15
I don't know about you but I'm over my Michigan funk and pumped up for March 15. This is one of the biggest days yet and I'm cautiously optimistic (after Michigan I'm not taking anything for granted anymore) about how HRC will do in each of the primaries.
Florida--246 delegates at stake--is an older electorate & a closed primary--only those registered as Dems can vote. This should be a plus for HRC--that plus the fact that she is much more organized in the state.
Illinois--182 delegates at stake--Chicago can provide up to half the Democratic vote and should be strong for HRC, but is an Open primary. In 2008 Barack Obama easily won the state 65-33. While Hillary was born here and lived in IL for many years--it was also Barack Obama's home state (not birth state) and the state he was serving in the Senate. In 2008 Obama got the African-American vote 9-1--we can expect that in 2016 based on other states that will swing solidly behind HRC. Women made up 58% of the turnout in 2008.
Ohio--159 delegates at stake--A state with several major cities: Cleveland should be HRC's base. Bernie will do best, as usual, in areas with large student populations. In 2008 HRC won the Ohio primary 54-44. Black turnout in the state was about 20% and the female vote made up 55% of the total turnout. HRC won most of the counties, Obama won the counties that included Cleveland, Columbus, Dayton and Cincinnati. This is the big state I worry about the most as I believe that Bernie is making his biggest push here. It is a mixed primary which means that undeclared or independent voters can vote in the Democratic primary either by registering as a Democrat or simply by choosing to vote the Democratic line, but registered GOP voters cannot vote. On the plus side I believe many independents or "undeclared" voters will vote for Gov. Kasich in his home state to try and deny Donald Trump a victory in the GOP primary.
North Carolina--121 delegates at stake. I feel good about this, but it won't be a blow-out like the states of the lower south (GA, AL, LA, MS)--I can see the potential of Bernie getting 35-40 percent of the vote, but I do believe that our base of African-American voters will win the day. In 2008 Obama won the primary 56-42 percent over Clinton. African-American voters made up one-third of the turnout. This is a mixed primary as well.
Missouri--84 delegates at stake. This state is near Oklahoma and Kansas both of which Bernie won, so there is a potential that he could do well here, too. But the difference is that those were caucuses and this is a primary so many more voters will participate. The key for HRC is St. Louis and Kansas City and the big African-American vote in those cities. This is an Open primary where independents and republicans can vote in whatever primary they choose. In 2008 HRC narrowly beat Barack Obama here 49-47. In 2008 22% of the Democratic primary vote was cast by Independents and Obama won those 59-31. While there is a sizable black vote in Missouri especially in the larger cities it is not nearly as large as some Southern and Midwestern states like Illinois. In 2008 black men made up 6% of the total Democratic primary vote and 9% among African-American women. White women made up 43% of the total vote and white men 37%.
As of right now I feel that HRC could come out of Tuesday netting about 100 more delegates than Bernie.
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