Weird--newest NBC Polls--IL is close and Ohio is a landslide...

[book_worm]

Florida--61-34 for Clinton

Ohio--58-38 for Clinton

Illinois--51-45 for Clinton

The size of Clinton's lead in all three states directly correlates to her advantage with African-American Democratic voters - 57 points in Florida (77 percent to 20 percent), 48 points in Ohio (72 percent to 24 percent) and 39 points in Illinois (67 percent to 28 percent).

Among Latinos, Clinton holds just a five-point edge over Sanders in Florida, 51 percent to 46 percent, while Sanders leads Clinton among Latinos in Illinois, 64 percent to 30 percent.

The headlines are on the GOP race but you can also find the Democratic numbers here:

http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/polls-trump-ahead-florida-illinois-kasich-leads-ohio-n537356

[MSMITH33156]

1. This is probably why (from the article)

Among Latinos, Clinton holds just a five-point edge over Sanders in Florida, 51 percent to 46 percent, while Sanders leads Clinton among Latinos in Illinois, 64 percent to 30 percent.

No clue if it's accurate, but that would explain the closeness of the Illinois race. I also have no idea why that would randomly happen in Illinois. It screams outlier, but after Michigan, no poll is to be trusted, or untrusted. Because the vast majority of polls missed something in Michigan, so we can't dismiss that this poll is getting something that other polls are missing.

[book_worm]

5. Yes, I added this on edit

Latinos are much bigger population in Florida and for her to be up by the amount she is and only lead by 5 among hispanic voters seems a bit wacky. It's a shame they don't publish the early voting numbers in these polls because all three have had early voting for weeks now.

[MSMITH33156]

11. Yes but Florida is a bit different

because the primary is closed, and a lot of Cuban-Americans are registered Republicans.

Unfortunately, Florida hasn't had a competitive Democratic primary since 1992. 2008 was unofficial since the state violated party rules (just like Michigan). By the time they got to Florida in 2004, it was over. Ditto for 2000, which was over before it started.

So, I'll be curious to see the demographic makeup of the vote on Tuesday.

[leftofcool]

2. Looks like it might be a sweep for Hillary

[book_worm]

3. IL looks too close for comfort

[riversedge]

15. I agree. just too close and

sanders has almost two days to rally his troops yet.

[aaaaaa5a]

4. Remember Michigan. Those numbers don't "feel" right to me.

I like our chances in Florida and North Carolina.

But I am worried about Ohio and Illinois.

[book_worm]

6. Florida feels right, but not Ohio

I think it's closer there. Illinois, I think, will be close.

[aaaaaa5a]

7. Hillary wins Ohio by double digits she can

turn to the GE without dispute from anyone.

[book_worm]

8. HRC has added a Chicago appearance to her agenda tomorrow:

Update: Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will return to Chicago for a Monday morning rally at a Near West Side union hall.

[MSMITH33156]

9. Makes you think

those Illinois numbers might have something to them.

[Buzz Clik]

10. Will she be trashing Rahm Emanuel? Seems unlikely.

[Light63]

12. Worry here in Chicago!

My high school daughter just asked me last night who Bernie Snaders is. She said all of her friends' parents have been talking about BS and will vote for him. I truly believe that (1) the Republican vicious propaganda on Hillary and (2) the free tuition BS is blindly offering have driven many Democrats away from Hillary.

As I've stated yesterday, the complete lack of Hillary signs in my mixed-ethnic population is eerily strange and ominous! I truly hope Hillary will be able to pull out a win in Illinois.

Anyway has a counter point to BS's free tuition offering, please share with me. I don't believe he will be able to accomplish. Just a political empty promise to get votes, but how do we explain that to the young peoples!

[MSMITH33156]

13. I wouldn't worry about anecdotal things like this

I think we know it'll be closer than the polls show. But let's just see how it plays out.

I think most important is to have perspective. We're way in front. Even if we lose all 5 states (which we won't), we'll still be way in front.

[book_worm]

14. True, but she really needs to gain some momentum

because after this the race in many states will start to favor Bernie--particularly in the west.

[BlueCaliDem]

20. I don't believe Bernie will win California. California didn't go for Obama in the '08 primaries,

either, and went for Hillary. She's a Clinton, and Californians love the Clintons in general, but Latinos love her particularly and the majority of Californians are Latino now. She also has major backing in my State (Feinstein, Boxer, the SEIU, practically all Latino U.S. Congressmen, etc.).

I don't know about the other western States, though, but I have to believe that Washington State will go Hillary (large population of AA's) and Oregon might go Bernie (they're pretty left-wing there).

[riversedge]

16. oh god don't say that!!

I am a worry wort to begin with.

[Nonhlanhla]

18. The counter point to Bernie's free tuition

is that the way free college level tuition usually works, is by channeling students from a very young age into different channels, so that only a small percentage can go to college. See Germany as example.

[Mary Mac]

17. alas

Hil might lose Illinois. Ive voted for her in NC and will try to make her rally. But she needs a strong get out the vote and tv ads.

[BlueCaliDem]

19. Could it be that Illinoisians are pissed off at Rahm and that's reflecting in the polls

since Rahm and the Clintons used to be (or still are, don't know) close friends?

That could be it.

But I doubt that really matters because they'll vote for her in the G.E. when she wins since they love President Obama, and he will be endorsing her.