STATE OF THE PRIMARY - March 14, 2016

[Chichiri]

Last edited Mon Mar 14, 2016, 02:31 PM - Edit history (1)

Delegate Count

Total Delegates: Clinton 1,231, Sanders 576 (Clinton +655).
Pledged Delegates: Clinton 775, Sanders 552 (Clinton +221).
Versus Targets: Clinton 775/685 (+90), Sanders 552/642 (-90).
2,383 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 45.9% of remaining pledged delegates.


Latest Results

March 8 (MI, MS): Clinton 95, Sanders 71 (Clinton +24).
Versus Targets: Clinton 95/86 (+9), Sanders 71/80 (-9).
March 12 (MP): Clinton 4, Sanders 2 (Clinton +2).
Versus Targets: Clinton 4/3 (+1), Sanders 2/3 (+1).


Next Primary: March 15

Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio: 691 delegates total.
Targets: Clinton 365, Sanders 326.



Comments
A good number of post-Michigan polls for tomorrow's states are now out, and as expected, they show the races in Ohio, Illinois, and Missouri to be a lot closer than we'd thought. Hillary is still on track for large wins in Florida and North Carolina.

Presumably they are showing different results because they're using different models in light of Michigan. Unfortunately, we won't know until Wednesday whether these models are accurate, or an overreaction to the upset in Michigan. I think the former is more likely.

Can Bernie win? Mathematically, the answer is yes. But, an interesting article at Vox laid out his path to victory, and to say it's a hard one is an understatement.

He has to win all of the six largest states remaining (Ohio, Illinois, Florida, New York, Pennsylvania, California). He can't pull a "virtual tie" as he did in Michigan; he has to win them. Any state he doesn't win, he has to make up the difference elsewhere (and he'll probably have a respectable amount of catching up to do from Florida alone). Of the three "big" states that vote after tomorrow, none are caucuses; two are closed primaries, and California is a "semi-closed" primary with a large Hispanic population.

He also has to win the whiter states (Oregon, Indiana, Kentucky, West Virginia, etc.) by landslides, something like 60% or better, and at least pull even with Hillary in the remaining states. Again, anywhere he fails to do this, he has to make up the difference elsewhere.

After tomorrow, we should know whether this scenario is flatly impossible or merely unlikely. Remember to do all you can to get out the vote!


How This Works
The total delegate count is taken from the AP. All other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight unless otherwise indicated. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention).

The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination; they take into account factors such as demographics.


Iditarod Update
Dallas Seavey out of Elim at 04:11, about to enter White Mountain. Brent Sass out of Elim at 04:37, Mitch Seavey at 04:40, Aliy Zirkle at 09:24. We'll probably have a winner this time tomorrow.

[Her Sister]

1. thank you!

This is going to be exciting!