Hillary Clinton
Related: About this forumSo does the fact that I can only...
... find predictions for Florida in FiveThirtyEight.com mean that the other four are too close to call?
tia
las
Rose Siding
(32,623 posts)Just toggle the arrows and the drop down will let you change states. He has her winning all of them to varying degree.
sharp_stick
(14,400 posts)Missouri: 54:46 Clinton
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/missouri-democratic/
Illinois: 88:12 Clinton
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/illinois-democratic/
North Carolina: 99:1 Clinton
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/north-carolina-democratic/
Ohio: 95:5 Clinton
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/north-carolina-democratic/
kennetha
(3,666 posts)but even there it gives Hillary a 54% chance of winning.
Il: 88%
NC: > 99%
FL: > 99%
OH: 95%
I'll take those odds.
Rose Siding
(32,623 posts)Either way, the big gap between polls and demographics makes us nervous, especially because three more Midwestern states are voting today, including Ohio, where Clinton leads Sanders by about 11 percentage points in the polls. Historically, a margin like that would be quite safe: hence our polling models conclusion that Clinton is a 97 percent favorite. But after what just happened in Michigan? Id love to drop a few bucks on Sanders if a bookmaker offered 30-to-1 odds against him, as our polling model does.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/can-bernie-sanders-pull-off-an-upset-in-ohio/
With decent wins in FL and NC, the others could all be near squeakers either way and she'll still be way ahead. Further ahead.
yallerdawg
(16,104 posts)if she pulls a modest 60-40 out of FLA and NC, and averages a tie out of the other three, she'll lead by 300 pledged delegates tonight, not counting supers!
It will be over today!