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So does the fact that I can only... (Original Post) LAS14 Mar 2016 OP
There are predictions for all the states here Rose Siding Mar 2016 #1
Here's some more sharp_stick Mar 2016 #2
Only Missouri is worrisome if you believe 538 kennetha Mar 2016 #3
Yeah but Nate's hedging his bets in OH too Rose Siding Mar 2016 #5
The way I figure it... yallerdawg Mar 2016 #6
Thanks to all of you. LAS14 Mar 2016 #4

Rose Siding

(32,623 posts)
1. There are predictions for all the states here
Tue Mar 15, 2016, 12:43 PM
Mar 2016
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/north-carolina-democratic/

Just toggle the arrows and the drop down will let you change states. He has her winning all of them to varying degree.

kennetha

(3,666 posts)
3. Only Missouri is worrisome if you believe 538
Tue Mar 15, 2016, 12:47 PM
Mar 2016

but even there it gives Hillary a 54% chance of winning.

Il: 88%
NC: > 99%
FL: > 99%
OH: 95%

I'll take those odds.

Rose Siding

(32,623 posts)
5. Yeah but Nate's hedging his bets in OH too
Tue Mar 15, 2016, 01:01 PM
Mar 2016
Either way, the big gap between polls and demographics makes us nervous, especially because three more Midwestern states are voting today, including Ohio, where Clinton leads Sanders by about 11 percentage points in the polls. Historically, a margin like that would be quite safe: hence our polling model’s conclusion that Clinton is a 97 percent favorite. But after what just happened in Michigan? I’d love to drop a few bucks on Sanders if a bookmaker offered 30-to-1 odds against him, as our polling model does.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/can-bernie-sanders-pull-off-an-upset-in-ohio/


With decent wins in FL and NC, the others could all be near squeakers either way and she'll still be way ahead. Further ahead.

yallerdawg

(16,104 posts)
6. The way I figure it...
Tue Mar 15, 2016, 01:44 PM
Mar 2016

if she pulls a modest 60-40 out of FLA and NC, and averages a tie out of the other three, she'll lead by 300 pledged delegates tonight, not counting supers!

It will be over today!

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